Wild Card Weekend Final Thoughts

History

The all-time record is 13-13 after the Buccaneers levelled the historical match ups on Week 1 of the regular season.

That obviously has to be the look back game and Washington was exposed particularly on explosive plays: the hope & expectation is that the Commanders have vastly improved both starting CB spots with Marshon Lattimore and the outstanding rookie Mike Sainristil.

The Buccaneers ran out 37-20 winners that day and went for nearly 400 yards as Washington were undone by a supremely accurate Baker Mayfield who was at 80% passing completion with zero INT and four TDs. When Mayfield has got hot this season, he is a major problem with the second highest number of TDs thrown league-wide and 4500 passing yards.

Matchups

They’ll rightfully be plenty of talk with regard to the potential fireworks between Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore, but there are two rookies who also make for an intriguing match-up on the other side of the ball.

Jalen McMillan is an explosive WR and has caught 8 TDs in his rookie season. This will be a test for CB Mike Sainristil, who like McMillan, is having a tremendous first season in the NFL. If Lattimore can go toe to toe with Evans, we might see Mayfield get a little frisky and force the ball to McMillan.

Washington will hope that Centre Tyler Biadasz is both good to go and, just as importantly, good to stay the duration of the game. There are some areas of the Commanders roster whereby the back-ups are serviceable (QB, interior DL), but the Centre position is a significant drop-off. Facing up against Vita Vea is a huge challenge and if Tyler can hold his own that might give Daniels the nanosecond needed to go deep.

Keys to win

Can the Commanders OL and Daniels pick up the Todd Bowles blitz? If they can, the Buccaneers backfield is less than stellar, and they rank 29th in pass DEF across the league.

Opportunity knocks for Daniels if he can be kept upright and hit the likes of Terry McLaurin and even Dyami Brown for chunk plays. This is the play-offs and dink & dunk won’t get it done.

On the other side of the football. Can Washington contain limit the outstanding rookie RB, Bucky Irving? If the CBs can get the coverage job done vs Evans and McMillan, the Commanders can stack the box to contain the Tampa Bay running game and force Mayfield into throwing the football, which to be fair, he has done extremely well this season, but there is still that lingering feeling that Baker he can throw up the ball.

As an extra bonus key to win: the playbook. Is there something that Kingsbury has yet to showcase to the NFL?

Opponents Knockout Player

TDs happen to important in the NFL and for QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay has been a great landing spot in comparison to Cleveland. With 41 TDs and an ability to extend plays and keep his eyes down the field, Mayfield is a big problem for the Commanders. DC Joe Whitt Jnr said, ‘hit him like a running back’ and the LBs and defensive backs need to tackle with authority.

Spotlight players for the Commanders

Tampa Bay are excellent vs the run, but I’d love to see Kingsbury dial up a big play for Austin Ekeler. An explosive big gain from Ekeler could make all the difference.

Daron Payne has never hit the sack heights (11.5) of his 2022 season in burgundy & gold. A disruptive game for Payne would go some ways to earning his significant pay cheque. The Buccaneers Centre, Graham Barton, has proved to be an excellent round one draft selection for Tampa Bay. But he is still a rookie, and can Daron get some push back vs the Duke graduate?

Score prediction

The Commanders on paper do not have a roster that quite compares to Tampa Bay.

But, with Jayden Daniels suiting up: all is possible, especially if Washington’s rookie QB can connect on the deep ball with Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown against a slightly mediocre Buccaneers DB unit.

There is also a fair chance that OC Kliff Kingsbury has a few tricks up his sleeve to reveal to the NFL this wild card weekend.

27-20 Washington!