UKHTTC pregame quick read - Week 9 (Patriots)

In a season long series, UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt, previews key match ups, hot takes, and keys to the win. We reach Week 9 and the Commanders are on the road to face the 2-6 New England Patriots.

Hot Take

There has been a fact-based commentary all week that Bill Belichick is a master at making young QBs uncomfortable. With his man coverage schemes, often the WR1 is double-teamed with the focus then on the supporting cast of receivers.

Terry McLaurin, however, takes all these facts and flips the script totally. His contested catch ability shines through on Sunday.

McLaurin will have something major to prove after the two ‘drops’ vs the Eagles and has a Patriot-busting 100-yard receiving game and two TDs to boot.

History

There have only been 11 match-ups vs NE with Washington ahead 6-5.

Interestingly the last time the teams met was 2019 and this turned out to be the final game of the Jay Gruden era as Head Coach after a dismal 0-5 start.

One of the names that was linked to the job post-Gruden: our current OC Eric Bieniemy. I wonder how that would have turned out.

Key match ups

An intriguing matchup will be CB Kendall Fuller vs Patriot FA pick-up Juju Smith-Schuster.

With Mac Jones fav wideout Kendrick Bourne on IR, Juju will likely be the main go-to and you’d figure that Kendall Fuller has the savvy veteran play to limit Smith-Schuster and any ‘big plays’ which have been costly for Washington in 2023.

Keys to win?

This has a similar pre-game feel to that of the New York Giants game and we know that Belichick will bring a variety of defensive looks including regular blitzes to unsettle Sam Howell.

Again, we need to see another step for this reset Commanders OL: be a bit better than bend not break. For Sam, getting that football out early and accurately for a second week in a row would be a key to victory.

The addition by subtraction vibe exit of Chase Young will be under the spotlight too; will Casey Toohill demonstrate the more disciplined DE play that the coaches here seem to desire?

The Patriots are averaging a pitiful 14 points per game, although often they’ve moved the ball ‘OK’ only for a Mac Jones brain fart and crucial INTs. With this in mind, a big key to win is for the Commanders to come out strong on the Offensive side of the football and get 10 ahead early; the more pressure on Jones to play catch up, the more likely he continues to disappoint at the Gillette.

Curtis Samuel is a miss, so expect both Crowder and Gibson to be involved more in the receiving game. Ball security has been an issue for Gibson, but I would love to see an explosive play or two from Antonio this Sunday.

Spotlight player(s)

Casey Toohil & James Smith-Williams

How will these guys fare as they step up into starting DE roles? Both look stout if unspectacular DEs, but maybe that’s what Washington need, disciplined containment.

Toohill had some doubts about his ability to stop the run game in many a draft profile, and the Pats do have a decent RB duo in Stevenson and Elliott: might be one to watch and a potential worry for the burgundy & gold.

Predictions

Both teams will view this one as ‘winnable’, so who comes out on top is a bit of a flip of a coin.

With the Seahawks, Cowboys, and the Dolphins on the horizon, this is a real must-win if there are any lingering thoughts of a WC type spot.

Sam Howell makes a step forward again and the Commanders take the road win 24-20 in a close one, with Terry McLaurin the standout guy.