UKHTTC pregame quick read - Week 3 (Bills)

Hot Take

The entire Washington starting DL come away from this game vs the Bills with a sack as the Commanders DEF continues to dominate in the trenches.

History

For the second week in a row we face a team that Washington defeated in a Superbowl.

On January 26th, 1992, the Redskins, led by Mark Rypien, defeated the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl XXVI for Washington's third Super Bowl victory.

Last time out, the Bills put up 41 to the WFTs 21. Essentially the Bills done whatever the hell they liked. Have Washington matured as a team since that loss? This is a real barometer of progress since 2021.

Key match ups

Even without Von Miller for the first games, the Bills have one of the better DEF in the NFL and limited 2022 NFL rushing leader LV Raider Josh Jacobs to -2 yards last week.

Buffalo are a true high-calibre NFL team; the DEF is pretty stingy and are coached very well by Sean McDermott – it seems to be a roster whose personnel know their assignments and let the plays make themselves. Plus they have one of the best QBs in the league (albeit one with a high INT rate) and best WRs in Maryland native Stefon Diggs.

Last week in Denver, the Commanders came up against Surtain II and Justin Simmons; high-calibre DBs and dropped 35 points on the Broncos. They’ll likely need the same again as a minimum to win at FedEx on Sunday.

I am intrigued to see the match up of Montez Sweat vs RT Spencer Brown. Brown put in a stellar performance for the Bills vs stud Raider DE Matt Crosby. Can he contain another stud DE in Sweat? The Commanders will be hoping that Spencer reverts to his week one performance vs the Jets where he was at fault for at least one sack and countless QB pressures.

Jahan Dotson off the Howell deep ball vs Christian Benford (who is not fast, but can stuff at the line) might also be a good match up vs the Commanders; Dotson is due a TD or two.

Keys to win?

Throughout the Rivera reign, it has been rare that the Commanders have given up; they proved this again last week vs Denver. On paper the Bills are pretty much strong all over; even their less impressive OL has pro-bowl talent in LT Dion Dawkins.

There are very likely to be 1-2 possessions by the Bills where Buffalo ‘have their way’ and march down the field – there is too much talent in Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, James Cook and TE Dalton Kincaid for this to not happen.

Do not let heads drops when that happen as Washington have plenty of their own weapons and despite the miserly Bills DL stuffing the run vs the Raiders, the Commanders should not abandon the game on the ground.

Brian Robinson Jnr under Eric Bieniemy has me all sorts of excited and if he can carry for 80 yards minimum then Washington will remain competitive in this match up. Mix in some play action to speedsters McLaurin and Dotson, with Benford a potential weaker link due to his lack of speed.

In some ways, Buffalo are perhaps where the Commanders would like to be, but the game is not won on paper and at another packed FedEx Field anything is possible.

Spotlight player

With Logan Thomas ruled out, the younger TEs in Washington will need to step up.

John Bates might not be the flashiest of TEs, but he can block well and that might be useful against the Bills DEF. Bates ability to get open is a tad underrated, so a 2 or 3 key chains ticking over receptions could be extremely useful.

Extra spotlight: Diggs is a stud WR in the NFL, Emmanuel Forbes Jnr is a star in the making, but still a rookie. Could be a tough week 3 match up.

Predictions

Washington need to score at least 30 as even with the Commanders much vaulted DL, Buffalo have the ability to flip the field with Allen, Diggs & Co.

The Eric Bieniemy masterclass in O-coaching continues, with the Commanders taking down Buffalo 34-31 and going 3-0 and suddenly the whole NFL is aware of the burgundy & gold.

Jahan Dotson takes the Game Ball home with two long yard 40+ receptions into the EZ.