UKHTTC pregame quick read - Week 2 (Broncos)

Like-warm Take

My rather lukewarm take is that a SB-winning QB in Russell Wilson and the Commanders third regular season starter QB Sam Howell end up with similar stats in the pass game; around the 200 yards marker in the air.

Washington might find it difficult to get both the pass and run game going against a Broncos DEF that includes a stud CB in Patrick Surtain II and stud Safety in Justin Simmons, and two LBs in Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton who have built up an excellent chemistry.

Likewise, although Russell Wilson looked crisper vs the Raiders in Week 1, the Broncos still only put up 16 points vs LV. Can Washington keep Russ in the pocket? Washington welcome back Chase Young for a no doubt a set number of snaps, so we get to witness the first rounders quartet along the Commanders DL to make life uncomfortable for Wilson.

We might see both teams fail to get 20 points in a DEF-dominated game at the Mile High. Denver’s pass rush was AWOL Week 1 vs LV, but have enough talent to get to Sam Howell, including the pass rush of veteran Randy Gregory. Both teams will move the ball reasonably competently through Jevonte Williams and Brian Robinson Jnr respectively.

History

Superbowl 22 baby! 1988 and the then Washington Redskins run-over the Broncos 42-10 with 35 points in the second quarter and Doug Williams forever etched in NFL history.

I do not, however, expect 42 points on Sunday. Last time out, in 2021, Denver with Teddy Bridgewater defeated Washington 17-10.

Our kicker was Chris Blewitt, our sole TD receiver was DeAndre Carter, the best RB that day was Jarrett Patterson and our QB was Taylor Heinicke. Things can change quickly in the NFL.

Key match ups

There are match ups all across the field for this one; and both sides offer challenges for each other.

It will be fun to see the Washington WRs and overall skill guys line up against a Denver backfield that includes All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II and pro-bowler Safety Justin Simmons. We rate, quite rightly, both McLaurin and Dotson in Washington and this is a big test.

Likewise the Broncos will be glad that WR Jerry Jeudy has recovered from a hamstring injury, and he will present problems for the Washington backfield and rookie Forbes Jnr, Fuller and St-Juste.

As ever, need the Washington OL to hold up enough for Sam Howell; this game could present difficulties for the QB with such a crafty backfield in Denver. I don’t expect him to have all the time in the world to throw, so a quick release will be vital to underneath guys like Curtis Samuel.

Keys to win?

I think this will be a ‘stay in it game’ where attrition is the key. It is rare that a Rivera team has got blown out in his tenure here and this will be a close one.

Unlike last Sunday, the Commanders will travel to Mile High as underdogs, and I do not feel we are (yet) a fully rounded roster that can dictate a game on all levels. Some keys are obvious: do not let Russell Wilson escape the pocket too often; it will happen now and then but stick to setting the edge and let the plays play out themselves.

Denver looked a decent DEF vs the run last week, but do not move away from the running the football and remember that our QB is only make his third regular season start in the NFL. Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo is a master of getting the ball out quickly and did so last week for the Raiders, we cannot expect Howell to be on that level just yet.

If a tight game as expected; a timely INT would be welcomed and let us also hope the kicking unit have ironed out some problems, especially the LS Cheeseman. Extra points and FGs might be the difference in a 2-0 or 1-1 record after Sunday.

For this on the road game, Washington will need to be near perfect; less of the dropped catches, fumbles, and penalties we saw last week will help.

Spotlight player

As with last week, you cannot escape the spotlight if you are an unproven QB in the NFL – so Sam Howell is likely to be a regular candidate. Learning on the job will equal a bumpy ride and we have to remember this is also Sam’s first road game in burgundy & gold. By the end of the season, Howell might well have improved further or the League, as it can starkly do on occasion, might chew Howell up, and spit him out.

Extra spotlights: return of Chase Young with you’d expect a set number of snaps, and will Gibson be trusted to not fumble and Logan Thomas trusted to make those comfort blanket receptions that a young QB needs?

Predictions

A low-scoring game where three points, or even an extra point make be all the difference.

It would be too easy as a fan to predict wins EVERY week, but so what, let us stay positive and the Commanders win a tight contest 19-16, but the questions at obvious key position units continue. The DEF plays well again, but the OFF continues to stutter and put up a meaningful points total.

Montez Sweat takes the Game Ball home by adding another 1.5 sacks to his 2023 total.