UKHTTC pregame blog: topple the Giants

Can the Washington Commanders bounce back from the Week 1 road loss to Tampa Bay when they entertain divisional rivals the New York Giants?

UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt, looks at recent history, some keys to win and a score prediction as rookie QB Jayden Daniels make his hotly anticipated home debut at the Northwest Stadium.

History  

The all-time record between the teams: New York Giants lead series 108-71-5 and represent a real hoodoo opponent for the burgundy and gold.

Looking back at a last win for Washington, this came in Week 18 of the 2021/22 season. The 20-7 win came against a Giants team in absolute freefall and Washington broke a four-game losing streak.

This was the final game that the burgundy and gold stepped out as the Washington Football Team, so at least that short-lived era ended in a win.

Not too much greatness stood out from the game, although it does pop out that place kicker Joey Slye went 3/3 and Heinicke completed only 9/18 passes. Antonio Gibson went for near 150 yards at 7 yards a carry. All three are now elsewhere in the National Football League.

Keys to win: DEF side of the ball

Come out ready to play!

I plead to this Washington DEF: the current incumbent suiting up as the QB in New York, Daniel Jones, is seeing more ghosts than Bruce Willis.

Last week the Commanders were actually the second rated team the NFL pass rush win rate in Week 1. That does mean that something was going well; they just failed to get the elusive and confident Baker Mayfield face down in the turf.

If the Washington front four can take the next step, get the job done. and sack the QB, then I see Jones crumbling at the Northwest. Whilst also an elusive runner (especially against Washington), Jones has suffered numerous injuries including an ACL. For me, he isn’t the super mobile “Vanilla Vick” anymore.

Extra point: it will be interesting if DT Johnny Newton takes the field today as both Newton and Phil Mathis could also have a day even as back-ups.

Get to Jones and it will nullify the obvious explosive threat of QB Jayden Daniels’ old LSU buddy WR Malik Nabers.

Keys to win: OFF side of the ball

Come out ready to play part 2!

It will be a less blitz-heavy compared to Tampa, but there is still a major headache ahead.

Giants DE Thibodeaux excelled against RT Andrew Wylie last year and rookie QB Jayden Daniels will have to process quickly and get the ball out accurately.

On paper, the Giants DL is a problem for Washington with Dexter Lawrence at NT and big FA signing Brian Burns completing a trio expected to win man for man.

If the Washington OL can hold up, the Giants looked susceptible to big chunk plays as shown by veteran QB Sam Darnold in the loss vs the Vikings.

Extra point: can the new kicker make FGs? That position needs to be settled asap. Newly signed kicker Austin Seibert is accurate from middle-range but is less so from longer out. Might mean a few last down punts and/or going for it on fourth.

Spotlight players

The Alabama Wall: I want both Jon Allen and Daron Payne to get home vs the Giants OL and to bring down Daniel Jones.

It’s a new test for Jayden Daniels this week as he adapts to life in the NFL. Let’s see if Jayden can learn from last week and take some of the NFL tighter window opportunities that were left on the field Week 1.

Score prediction 24-14 Commanders Win

Commanders to get to 1-1 by putting up 24 to the Giants 14.

The secondary remains a worry but is heavily aided by a productive pass rush and an ineffective Daniel Jones that will compensate for current deficiencies.