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In this Long Read, UKHTTC dissect another failed NFL campaign with no post-season appearance for the underachieving Washington Commanders.
In 2023 it is near certain that Washington will finally escape from the disastrous ownership of Dan Snyder, therefore there is also the likelihood of a brighter future for the burgundy & gold.
Featured on the blog today are opinions from regular contributors Andy Eckert (USA) and from the UK, Simon Thurston, Tony Wheat, Scott Hartley and UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt.
It would seem polite to let our American cousin go first, with Andy Eckert offering interesting critical thoughts on the now and on the future.
Season MVP for the Commanders
There is a high probability that my season MVP might be the same as others contributing to this blog/article. Daron Payne right has started every game. He has 11.5 sacks from the DT spot. Almost x3 more than a year ago. Payne was a difference-maker who stood out from the rest most of the season.
He also started getting his hands up again to deflect a few passes. He is still only in his mid-20’s and about to get paid big. IMO, he’s more valuable than any other player right now on Defense. More than Jon Allen. More than Chase Young. More than Montez Sweat.
Season Deflator
At first, I was going to say my season deflator is Scott Turner.
He’s been in this role for over a couple of years and has shown no growth. At first, he didn’t have the talent to run the system. Then you look around the league and see other coaches getting better production from the same or less talent at QB and other positions.
If I can sit on my couch and know what’s coming much more often than not, you know the other team does. And they aren’t good enough to play that way. But the real DEFLATOR has been HC Ron Rivera. As many people have said this year, he’s a really good guy. He’s tried to avoid the ownership drama and keep that stuff out of the locker room.
But he is his record. He has a few winning seasons out of almost a dozen total, and he needed an MVP year from QB Cam Newton for a Superbowl appearance. His mistakes during games, like clock management and situational awareness, are way too far below average to be a HC for any football team, NFL, CFL, XFL, or USFL.
Honorary Deflator Award goes to Jason Wright
Man, what a let-down this guy has been. The tributes. The mascot. The fighting with reporters on Twitter. I don’t know if another NFL team will hire him after this. He came up small in a spot where the bar is set very low. Good luck in the business world. Your run in Washington should be taught in B-Schools on how to do it wrong.
Do I keep the Head Coach and Staff for 2023?
That’s a tricky question regarding ownership and if/when it changes hands.
If I were a new owner and took over before the Superbowl, then everything is on the table because there is enough time, and I probably already have my leadership team in place to find a coach.
However, the reality will probably be different, and that won’t likely be enough time to do it right. So, let’s assume new ownership happens somewhere in the March timeframe. Teams replacing coaches have done so, and it’s doubtful the guy I’d want is available before 2024. So, I would keep Ron while removing his front office authority.
He’s there to coach and request anything from a GM who decides if that is in the long-term best interest. I don’t know what his contract is like, and he might refuse. But let’s assume that can happen. Ron stays as HC, but Turner is 100% gone. I don’t care about JDR. He seems like a terrible human, but we’re still talking one more season, so might as well not change the Defense.
I could see him retiring, and in that case, just promote from within for the ’23 season.
I would use Year One under new ownership to rebuild the front office, the training staff, medical staff, and scouting team, and audit every little detail about how the organization has been run. If you want to rebuild your house and have a rotted foundation, you need to take it all the way down and start there.
Positives heading into 2023
I’ll keep this short. Terry is under contract. Darrick Forrest flashed a few times. That’s it.
What decision I’d make that would surprise other fans?
I’d keep Taylor Heinicke if I can. He’s limited. He isn’t going to win you a SB. But if I’m keeping Ron for one more year, I keep Taylor because you need a backup who can step in and play a few games if needed, or more. He’s going to get paid to be a backup somewhere, as he is good enough for that role.
Not sure who the planned starter should be. With one more year probably under Rivera. It might be smart to focus on the foundation and spend on OL, run with Howell/Taylor or some street FA you grab on a show-me deal. But you can’t spend big in FA or the Draft if you’re expecting a new HC in another year.
I’d tell Daron Payne and his agent that they shouldn’t sign a contract here under this ownership. Yeah, he can be tagged or demand to be the highest-paid defensive player in the league. But his agent should tell them he wants to go to an organization that is run professionally.
Always a pleasure to get insightful thoughts from Simon Thurston who is up next.
Season MVP in burgundy & gold
Before I announce my MVP is, let's look at some youngsters who've played their butts off this season.
For me, S Darrick Forrest has shown he can be a hit (pun intended!) in this league: 52 tackles, 4 INTs and 2 FFs (at the time of writing) is an impressive start to his NFL career.
WR Jahan Dotson is another with 7 TDs and averaging over 14 yards per catch (currently) are stats that prove we have a third deep threat WR, which will only help Scary Terry on the other side for years to come.
But the 2022 season has seen arguably the most dominant performance by a Washington DT ever.
Daron Payne, with his 11.5 sacks, 30 solo tackles and blowing up offensive lines every week has had a career year. Question is: will he remain in the nation’s capital or not next season? In my opinion, we have to retain him, without question.
Your season deflater in 2022
Man, I mean, where do you start!
The opening day win vs Jacksonville feels like an eternity ago. I actually felt at the time (and still do) that the defeat to the Lions was more a reflection of how good Detroit is and not how bad we were/are.
However, being a huge believer in momentum in sports, I really do feel the tied game against the Giants a match up we should have won, and could have lost, really dented our charge towards the playoffs.
Clearly there are many subplots within the wider narrative. The Carson Wentz experiment which didn't pan out as hoped, Scott Turner's curious (to say the least) play calling at times, and Coach Rivera's game & clock management, 'riverboating' and lack of situational awareness.
But for me, a win at home to the Giants would have seen us cruise into postseason action. As it is, we're going to be sat at home yet again.
Head Coach and staff - do you show them the door?
There are two elements to this: what do I feel and what do I feel will actually happen.
I really do believe it's time to move on.
As incredible a man as Coach Rivera is, I'm just not sure he's suited to being a head coach in the NFL now. The league has changed and younger, more dynamically minded, and energetic coaches are continuing to emerge and have success.
I'd love to see him retained in the building in some capacity, but I do feel it's time to go. And whilst I'd be tempted to retain some of the coaching staff, possibly even Jack Del Rio, the reality is that an incoming head coach will most likely want to bring their staff.
However, here's what I think will happen: unless a sale of the franchise is finalised before the draft, I think Ron and (the majority of) his staff most likely survive another year.
Mr Snyder will still (technically) be in charge and will be reluctant to rock the boat too much. However, should a sale proceed swiftly, I could see the new ownership sweeping through the building with a rather large broom and making wholesale changes.
Any positivity for 2023?
Some of our younger players have really shown they belong in the league. And let's see how QB Sam Howell fares against Dallas; a solid performance will certainly give us food for thought for next season.
A largely disappointing season overall, but definitely some signs of optimism for next season.
What’s a decision you’d make that might surprise other fans?
Probably to retain JDR, as despite everything, I feel the defence has played pretty well overall.
I'm also mindful of the impact of changing both O- and D-coordinators has on a team and on the players. I know he's not everyone's cup of tea and that he's Rivera's man, but I'd be tempted to keep him, even should a sale take place before April.
Next up, lets hand opinion to Scott Hartley (and please do follow his podcast with Andy Lockhart).
Season MVP for the Commanders
I will go with DT Daron Payne. 2022 was a contract year for Daron and the 2018 first round pick for the Commanders didn’t disappoint. He has racked up 11.5 Sacks and a Safety this season, let’s just hope he gets paid in the off-season and we don’t let another elite talent leave this roster.
Season Deflater
The Giants home game was the one for me all of the momentum was just lost.
Following the 20-12 loss and it felt like the balloon had popped. This was a game where nobody showed out and seemed to set us back 2 seasons.
Head Coach and Coaching Staff – what next?
I now think it’s time to move on from this current staff.
Ron Rivera was the right man at the right time. He came in to build a new culture, to be a respected organisation, and attract a better calibre of playing staff.
I think he’s achieved that and that overall, he’s been able to ensure the off-field problems that persist didn’t affect the playing staff. Ultimately, however, it comes down to the on-field product and 7 wins for each of his 3 seasons as the top man show that that we haven’t progressed.
Trading for QB Carson Wentz and paying the huge salary has been a clear blunder when two other teams gave up on Wentz in consecutive seasons. The continual QB merry go round hasn’t helped Ron neither have some of the decision making on 4th Downs or Challenges. Clock Management has also been poor at best.
The lack of foresight in addressing the LB position, which has been a problem for 2 seasons now, is astonishing. As was the post-game interview after the Browns L; Rivera not knowing the team could have been eliminated from the playoffs after the Browns Week 16 game showed a lack of knowledge and understanding.
I was comfortable with Ron taking a front office role but, with the impending sale of the franchise, a new owner will most likely bring in their people and a new Front Office and Coaching Staff. Ron Rivera will be with us for the start of a new season in 2023, where a new owner will be present but he’s now a lame duck head coach.
His loyalty will be his downfall and he can get to the end of next season if he make changes to his offensive coordinator.
Ron seems to be the only person who still believes in OC Scott Turner. Sometimes changes are good look at the way the team has performed after they moved in from Sam Mills III as Defensive Line Coach, Jeff Zgonina, deserves credit for the job he’s done with what was an underperforming unit.
Scott Turner: where to start? Scott was heralded as an offensive genius within the Air Coryell offence, it certainly hasn’t worked out for him, and the play calling has been lacklustre all season. The lack of thought on 4th downs, continually calling trick plays and screens, left fans angry and dumbfounded.
Some will argue Scott didn’t have the Quarterback for the system but the lack of play from the inability of the offensive line being able to block in pass protection or get to the second level in run plays has been a head scratcher.
I hope Ron is not so loyal that he moves on from Scott Turner, but he signed a new three-year deal at the beginning of 2022 so we look like we will have another season with Scott as our play caller.
Jack Del-Rio: well, it has been a tale of 2 half’s this season for Jack. His off-field comments landed him in hot water during trading camp and the defence got off to a poor start. From mid-season the Defence clicked and became the unit we knew it was, being an elite front 7 and top 10 defensive unit in the NFL.
I wanted Del-Rio gone as he didn’t seem to know how to corral this defence and bring it to the level, we knew it could be. He has arguably made me eat humble pie and I take it back. This coaching staff will be with us for the next season but with potential new owners they are all on borrowed time.
Positivity for 2023
We have what is the best wide receiving unit in 20 years and any incoming Quarterback can look at the receiving weapons we have and feel comfortable.
The Defence can be a top 5 unit and an off-season priority should be to sign Kamren Curl to a long-term contract. In Darrick Forrest and Curl, we have found our Safety tandem for years to come.
The future is bright for the team and with a few new pieces, and obviously a functioning Quarterback, there is the potential that Washington can become a perennial playoff team of the future.
A decision you’d make that might surprise fans
Restructure the contract of Centre Chase Roullier. Beefing up the offensive line is a must, and we have massive needs and little cap space for 2023, with a lot of players needing new and improved contracts.
Cut TE Logan Thomas. Unfortunately for Logan the contract numbers and money don’t work out for him. If you can restructure his contract, then great. Logan being injured didn’t help his cause and poor Quarterback play didn’t help either, Logan just hadn’t looked anything like the Redzone threat we had 2 seasons ago.
We have a potential out in his contact with $3.5 million in dead cap money at the end of the season saving $8.75 million against the cap.
Next up, Tony Wheat of Full Press Commanders.
Season MVP for the Commanders
There are some strong candidates for this award despite the disappointing end to the season.
DT Jon Allen has played to an All-Pro level, Terry McLaurin has justified his big money deal despite yet another season of poor QB play, Kam Curl has made the leap to become a top 10 safety and Tress Way has been about the best punter in the NFL.
However, I’m going to give it to Daron Payne, because he has been dominant at times and significantly improved his pass rushing, which has elevated him into the category of a game changer on all 3 downs.
Previously regarded as primarily a run stuffer, Payne has added a significantly improved pass rush capability to his game. He currently has 11.5 sacks on the season, way more than his previous best of 5, set as a rookie in 2018. The combination of Payne and Allen has been a nightmare at times for opposing offenses, and as well as Allen has played, it has been Payne who has made the biggest leap in 2022.
It seems that the front office is preparing to offer Payne a new deal, and at the very least they should be franchise tagging him to make sure he doesn’t go anywhere this off season. I appreciate that it’s tough to pay all your D linemen, but not paying your own draft pick when he has improved each year and this year played at an elite level would be counter intuitive. McLaurin and Allen were draft picks who played well and got second contracts and Payne should be the same.
It’ll be complicated financially but it sends out a good message to the rest of the players on the team.
Season deflater 2022
So many to choose from! However, I’ll go with the obvious one, the continuing inability to find a competent starting QB.
I feel like I’m just switching off the alarm clock with “I got you babe” playing in the background to enter another wash, rinse, repeat description of the Washington QB situation and history, so I’ll spare you that.
However, there was cautious optimism (certainly from Ron Rivera and the front office), that Carson Wentz could at least provide stability, league average QB play, and the ability to enable Scott Turner to open up the play book to utilise his arm strength. That has not happened.
The Heinicke experience is always part fun, part head scratcher and he’s clearly not the long-term answer, but Wentz has now proven beyond all doubt that he is no longer a starting QB in the NFL.
As much as his physical tools are great, and his pedigree is excellent, the eye test doesn’t lie, and he has been poor for the vast majority of the season when he has played. It’s not all on Wentz, as the offensive line has been up and down and in the early part of the season the running game wasn’t established, but he did nothing in the Browns game to suggest he is the future, and he’ll almost certainly be released.
It will be interesting to see how Sam Howell does on Sunday, but I fear that a one game sample size isn’t exactly fair on him.
People will of course use one game to determine if he is the saviour or if he’s trash which is- of course totally unfair either way, but most of the same people were calling him the future after some promising performances against backups and mostly 3rd stringers in preseason. I think Howell has potential but its more based around what he did in college rather than in a couple of preseason games.
Head Coach and staff – do you show them the door?
This is a tough one because I’m generally against making sweeping changes unless things are clearly broken. This team has had 3 seasons in one. A very disappointing opening, a strong middle, and a terrible end, so it’s natural at the moment to feel that everything is terrible.
Four weeks ago, we were probably all more than happy with the current regime.
I wouldn’t be making sweeping changes, but I’d make a couple of tweaks. Ron Rivera should remain, although he will be under considerable pressure in 2023.
However, I would bring in someone to act as a proper GM/Football Czar, above him. Currently, Rivera has final say on literally everything in the building, football specific or otherwise. I think he’s spread too thinly and should be allowed to concentrate on just the football team. At times the team has looked under prepared, and ultimately that sits with the Head Coach.
I’m not sure who I’d bring in, but I want Coach Rivera to be Coach Rivera and not have to deal with every single aspect of the organisation, which as we all know also includes dealing with the multiple non-football issues that exist within Washington presently.
Rivera has had to deal with so much (not even including his own health in that which has been difficult enough for him), that it’s impossible to expect him to be as focused as other Head Coaches. It’s been said that he’s more of a CEO type of Head Coach, and for me that has to change.
For that to work, he has to have strong, trusted assistants and I’m not sure that coordinators Scott Turner and Jack Del Rio are strong enough. I’ve generally been a Turner apologist, but this season has tuned me sour.
Some of the play calling has been baffling at times and it’s been hard to put your finger on the offensive identity. Sure, we want to run it with Robinson, but he then disappears inside the red zone for no apparent reason?! The offensive coordinator has to formulate ways to get the ball into the hands of the team’s best players, and ultimately, he hasn’t done that.
The offense rarely seems to have any flow or spark which is criminal given the talent at the skill positions. Admittedly the offensive line has been inconsistent at best and the QB play uninspiring, but I think there is more to be got from this offense than Turner is able to muster. I would fire Turner and look to re-invigorate the offense.
For all the drama around Jack Del Rio in the off season and preseason, the defence has played pretty well this season, despite a slow start. It’s hard to play defence when your offence struggles to score 20 points, and complementary football is another area that this team is particularly poor at.
Kam Curl and Darrick Forest have emerged as talented young players in the secondary and Jamin Davis has made decent strides in his sophomore season, so Del Rio should get some credit for that.
The edge rushers have also played well in the absence of Chase Young, despite fears about the depth, so again, I give credit to Del Rio for that. Del Rio should stay, and I’d retain the remainder of the defensive staff. If Turner is to go, the new man will probably look to bring in his own assistants, so there may be some changes there, which I think will be good to freshen things up a little.
Any positivity for 2023?
I’ll keep this relatively brief, without doing a roster deep dive. There are some very good players on this Commanders squad. It is not a terrible squad by any means. The skill position guys on offense are potential game changers and the defence has a number of good players either in the prime of their careers, or just entering the prime.
On top of that, there is still optimism that Chase Young will be somewhere close to the player drafted in 2020 next year. The team has clear need at QB, offensive line, corner back, Linebacker and TE. Now, it’s unlikely that all of those will be able to be addressed in one free agency/draft cycle but the team is not a million miles away from being a playoff team.
Solid QB, as has been said so many times will make a huge difference, but as ever, the question remains, where are we going to find one? That’s a question for another day.
The other reason for optimism is much bigger and longer term than next season.
If Dan Snyder sells and the stench of his presence is removed from the organisation, it is a massive positive, and I can’t overstate that.
Nobody gives the franchise the time of day even now where multiple positive changes have been made to the organisation, simply because Dan Snyder is still there. If and when he goes, I genuinely believe that the outside worlds view of the whole organisation will change which can have so many associated benefits.
It’s easy to make excuses for the team on the field, but ultimately everything leads back to the ownership in terms of blame because everything he has done has in some way affected every employee in the organisation, be it head coach, player or the caretaker and cleaners.
It’s not a guarantee that a new owner is suddenly going to turn the franchise back into a winner again immediately, the league is way too competitive for that, but it will give the team a fair chance to succeed rather than fighting with one hand behind their backs. I think it’s going to happen and that’s more important than any other decision, even potentially QB in 2023.
Decision I’d make that would surprise other fans
If and when a new owner comes in, it is likely that they’ll bring in all their own people.
However, I would retain Jason Wright as the team president to ensure some continuity. He has made plenty of mistakes and been a little naïve at times, but he’s been a breath of fresh air to fans following on from the uncommunicative Bruce Allen.
Wright came in at an incredibly difficult time and is a smart guy who has effectively learned on the job. He has been working diligently behind the scenes to turn around the organisation, and despite the well documented mistakes, I believe he should be given the opportunity to continue with a lot of the good work that he has started.
I’d surround him with some people who know and understand the history of the organisation (which would help to prevent some of the cringe errors like the years on the new badge) and let him take the Commanders forward off the field.
And finally, a few surprises from UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt.
Season MVP for the Commanders
It is very on-brand for the Commanders that the season MVP is a guy that the front office might struggle to persuade to pen a long-term deal in Washington.
DT Daron Payne has been a force of nature and a nightmare for the majority of opposition interior linemen and QBs in 2022. He has a career high 11.5 sacks ahead of the Sunday match up vs the Cowboys.
Daron Payne will be paid very well when he signs his first non-rookie contract, and it will be considerably north of the Jon Allen deal in my opinion.
Can the Commanders afford to handsomely pay two interior DL guys? Well, yes, but it will likely need the route of a quality QB on a rookie deal or a value for money veteran under centre. A franchise tag would just delay the inevitable and at just 25, Payne should be the priority signing for any new ownership in Washington.
There were notable others in the potential MVP category, WR Terry McLaurin, DT Jon Allen, and S Kam Curl all had excellent seasons in burgundy and gold; in fact, a healthy Curl would have made a considerable difference to the win/loss column down the stretch when it mattered most.
Season deflater 2022
The OL of the Washington Commanders in the 2022 season was absolutely brutal and limited much of what could be done on offense.
The key position of Centre was blown up in Week 2 when Chase Roullier suffered a MCL tear in his right knee and was placed on injured reserve. Tyler Larsen was reasonably stoic as a back-up, but Nick Martin and Wes Schweitzer were not serviceable at all.
Ron Rivera and his front office should be given the Gas Face for the off-season pick-ups of Guards Trai Turner and Andrew Norwell who looked way past their sell-by date. The OL was stinky week in week out, providing little confidence to the fanbase and limited pass protection to the QB.
The tackles Charles Leno Jr and Cornelis Lucas are flimsy, and Sam Cosmi made no leap forward in 2022 in his sophomore year. You’d expect the draft in 2023 will provide the Commanders with young talent within the first three rounds to beef up this dreadful OL unit.
God help rookie QB Sam Howell this Sunday vs Dallas.
Head Coach and staff – do you show them the door?
Tempting, so very tempting.
Will there be a sale of the team by the NFL owners meeting in late March 2023? Prospective new owners will, right now, be needing to take expert advice, learning about the current roster, and analysing how they can make Washington a destination where the best want to come and play.
There has to be an element of realism here; Washington has categorically not been a place where the vast majority of quality NFL talent wish to ply their trade. Any player agent with half a brain would not advise their clients to sign for a team owned by Daniel Snyder. Even for the lamentable Carson Wentz, the front office had to trade picks to acquire his mediocre services rather than risk him choosing elsewhere if cut by the Colts.
So, I have a degree of sympathy for Ron and the Front Office when they are starting the race around 10m behind the starting pack. However, there have been opportunities squandered and an inability to Get it Right First Time. Yes, we can say that Chase Young was too good to turn down in the 2020 draft, but it is a fact that a face of the franchise level QB Justin Herbert was taken four spots later.
Rivera seems a step behind sharper NFL minds, OC Scott Turner is often baffling (although he has never had a QB above mediocre) and Jack Del Rio is a terrible person whose DEF seems to deflate the moment it loses any backfield pieces.
For me, 2023 will be about the owners reviewing the entire franchise top to bottom and Rivera and co will likely still be around at least for one more lame duck season. My guess is that new ownership will quickly grasp that Rivera has too large a role in comparison to his abilities and will want to hire a more traditional high-quality GM and let the coaches coach.
Any positivity for 2023?
Yes, it is more or less nailed on that Daniel Snyder will have sold the Commanders by the start of the 2023 season. It cannot be overstated that this is the best news that this beleaguered fanbase have had in many a year. For younger fans they will have only known Snyder and a repeated cycle of failure and scandal.
On the field there are some good pieces in place and, if nothing else, it is blindingly obvious where the roster is weaker in terms of starters and depth (QB, OL, TE, LB spring to mind).
Whoever comes in as new owner(s) will not be inheriting a totally diminished group of players; there are building blocks in place for a competent football team in Washington.
Decision I’d make that would surprise other fans
The Commanders will likely be picking around 10-20 in the NFL Draft 2023. My surprise decision would only be on the table if a sale has gone through, and a new competent GM is in post by the 27th of April.
The Bears are unlikely to pick a QB with the expected second pick of the draft. Give them a call.
Might they swap first rounders if Washington give up a stud player (Chase Young) and an additional 2024 first and 2025 second? This franchise can then take either CJ Stroud or Bryce Young at QB as our future franchise QB and replace Young with a veteran presence in the locker room off the Edge.
Washington cannot pay the entire DL, so something has to give, and this blockbuster trade would certainly surprise if nothing else.
Off-field, I doubt this is a surprise as such, but I would prefer the owners to just roll with Commanders rather than change name again.
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