UKHTTC Discussion - Under Centre in 2023?

It is a strange time to be a Washington fan.

All three NFC East rivals are in the post-season, with the Giants and Cowboys earning weekend victories vs. Minnesota and a poor Tampa Bay team respectively. And yet, despite the Commanders stumbling badly Weeks 13-17 and missing the play-offs, there is still cause for optimism both short term and long term in D.C.

A dark page will soon be turned in the history of the burgundy and gold and a fresh chapter will begin with expected, relatively imminent, new ownership of the Commanders.

And, in Week 18, there was the first regular season sighting of the rookie QB Sam Howell whose anticipation, arm and mobility caught the eye and imagination of fans and media alike.

Here at UKHTTC, we welcomed back Joshua Edwards to the blog, and along with UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt, offered thoughts on the QB room in 2023.

First up is Joshua.

Since Joe Theismann in 1974, Washington has drafted just five QBs in the first round of the NFL Draft. And I would continue that trend and abstain again this year. My preference here is to roll with Sam Howell and a veteran backup.

Not a veteran to compete, which precludes Taylor Heinicke, but a true journeyman backup toward which the fanbase has no predispositions. The main benefit to this approach is cost. Howell is on an incredibly cheap rookie deal which contains a total cap hit of just $3,226,200 for the next three years.

If the team can sign a backup for < $4m, that would give them a considerable boost to their free agency coffers, which can help to rebuild an ailing offensive line and/or line backer corps. Heinicke is likely to command more on the open market, and with Scott Turner and his scheme departing, there is limited appeal to keeping him around. Carson Wentz should be shown the door.

There is of course the added complication of the potential, impending sale of the franchise.

The fact there is light at the end of the tunnel from Dan Snyder's disastrous ownership is exciting, but it muddies the waters here. Will Ron Rivera be in situ in April? It feels likely - $5bn+ sales take time, and even if it's complete by then, a new owner is unlikely to shake things up quickly.

That means Rivera and his ex-Carolinian cronies likely have the 16th pick in the draft to play with. They're not getting Bryce Young or CJ Stroud or even Will Levis at that spot, and they're traditionally conservative, so I don't envisage a blockbuster trade, even if their days are numbered.

In short: don't draft a QB high, don't trade assets for a re-tread, and don't re-sign Taylor Heinicke. Give Howell the shot, and do your utmost to build a dynamic, dual threat offense around him.

And comment from UKHTTC founder Christian Burt

If this was Year 1-3 of the Ron Rivera led Commanders, I am certain that Ron would have made a strong pursuit of the likely cut Derek Carr.

It seems the Raiders wish to move on from a QB who seemed to be slightly on the other side of the hill in 2022, although you could argue that Davante Adams aside, there wasn’t much else for Carr to utilise weapon wise. Nor was there a functioning OL for him to be kept upright in Las Vegas (does that sound familiar).

Do I want Carr in D.C? No, not really, but is kind of amusing that the majority of us fans are dismissing a guy who would very much be the best QB to suit up in Washington since Kirk Cousins. Ron talked in his early tenure days of building the team to then drop a QB into that mix.

However, Rivera has categorically failed to build even an average OL unit in D.C and Carr is not good enough to transcend mediocre OL play.

The Head Coach spot is likely veering towards lame duck status with impending new ownership, and I feel Ron, if nothing else, is not your normal Year 4 coach going into the 2023 season who will swing big on an expensive veteran QB to save his job.

It is likely only an NFC Conference title in 2023 would be enough to convince new owners that Rivera is the guy going forward, and that seems a longshot even with an above average QB like Carr.

This current roster is talented, and you’d ideally wish to keep guys like Montez Sweat and Kam Curl around for a long-time in Washington. DT Daron Payne, I feel will get bigger and better offers elsewhere, but overall, this team needs to keep the majority of guys who are growing and learning together. This roster seems to be built for that exciting young QB on a rookie contract scenario.

One guy I would consider trading some draft capital for is Justin Fields in Chicago. The Bears hold the number 1 pick and, if they feel Bryce Young is a generational QB who cannot be passed over, I would be calling and discussing pick 16 as a starting point. It might take more than that, but that’s my starting offer to acquire a QB who might well remind Ron of his former explosive Panther QB Cam Newton.

Overall, however, you would think that in 2023, the Commanders under a “settling in” new ownership, will roll the dice with the second-year Sam Howell and add in a $6-8m veteran that will push Howell to earn that starting spot; obvious guys would be a Baker Mayfield or Tyler Huntley.

Final UKHTTC prediction: Sam Howell plus affordable veteran, with the addition of a late round QB in Draft 2023. No re-treads on expensive above average QBs and no blockbuster trade up or a Lamar Jackson sell the house deal.