UKHTTC 2024 Season Preview

The wait for the start of the NFL can seem like an eternity.

And yet, every year, when Game 1 is suddenly looming, I ask myself “am I actually mentally ready to endure another Washington rollercoaster season?". The answer is of course, yes, but with the caveat of understandably muted expectations going into Game 1 on Sunday 8th September and a road trip to Tampa.

The 2024 version of the Commanders is a tricky franchise to wholeheartedly predict for success given such a sizeable turnover in both on-field personnel and coaching staff.

But perhaps the forthcoming season is less about immediate wins and more about setting the foundations for a team that the NFL itself would like restored back to the heady days of the 80s and early 90s.

Victory has been a long-time coming in D.C and even the most generous evaluation of the current 53 would fall short in predicting play-off success.

The pre-season has, however, been pretty much drama-free which is always refreshing compared to the Snyder years. That is not to say there have not been surprises along the way.

The biggest news was the trading of Jahan Dotson within the division to the Philadelphia Eagles. A risky move if the talented WR lights it up in green & black. However, Head Coach Dan Quinn has regularly come up against Dotson during his tenure as Cowboys DC and it seems both Quinn and Commanders OC, Kliff Kingsbury did little to bang the table to retain Dotson.

Maybe Jahan is just not viewed as a ‘Commander’ and the projected toughness and physical style that represents to Quinn and co.

Here at UKHTTC, with the final 53 pretty much set, we can preview the season and offer thoughts as to who might light it up in 2024, who might disappoint and the likely record. First up, we welcome back UKHTTC stalwart Tony Wheat and then UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt, gives his point of view.

Tony:

Who lights it up in 2024?

I don’t want to jinx Jayden Daniels, and I won’t go with any of the obvious free agent additions like Bobby Wagner or Frankie Luvu, or even the undoubted star of the future Mikey Sainristil.

Instead, I’m going to go with one of the 22 survivors from the 2023 roster, Brian Robinson.

One of the few bright spots to emerge from the train wreck offense of 2023 was Robinson’s previously unheralded work as a pass catcher.

Eric Bieniemy’s offense threw the ball at a record clip, but Robinson managed to improve his catches from 9 as a rookie, to 36 last season for 368 yards and 4 TD’s. Despite the total lack of focus on the running game, Robinson still managed 178 carries for 738 yards and 5 TDs for 1,101 total scrimmage yards.

The 6ft 2, 230lb back looked in great shape in preseason, running strongly and appearing to have more burst and dynamism. The new Kliff Kingsbury offense will likely try and remove a lot of pressure from rookie QB, Jayden Daniels by leaning on the run and calling a range of quick release passes and screens.

Arguably, Robinson may lose some of the 3rd down/pass catching work to Austin Ekeler, but it is likely that he will receive the bulk of the early down carries and will also continue to feature in the screen game.

Robinson may not be a superstar and isn’t a fantasy darling, but I think there’s a good chance he gets 1,000 yards on the ground this season and supplements that with solid receiving production for somewhere close to 1,400 total yards. If that is the case, I’m sure Kliff Kingsbury and Dan Quinn will be delighted.

Who disappoints in 2024?

Again, I’ll avoid the obvious Emmanuel Forbes/Andrew Wylie answer and go for someone who I think long term will be a very good player but might not immediately get out of the blocks quickly.

Johnny Newton has missed almost the entirety of the off-season programme and training camp, and although reports were that he looked fast and explosive before the soft tissue injury that followed his two foot issues, it is going to be a big ask for him to come in at the get go, have his feet underneath him and produce.

Hopefully he’ll be eased into the rotation behind Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, but it may take some time for him to get up to speed, and those lost months may mean that his rookie season is somewhat underwhelming for a guy who was projected by most as a 1st round pick.

I think Newton is still likely to be a quality player, I just hope that the expectations for him this year are realistic, given everything that he’s missed. It may not harm him in many ways to be brought along slowly, rather than thrust into the lineup for a high volume of snaps, but the chances of him coming in and being a dominant force are limited and we may need to wait until year 2 to see the real Johnny Newton.

2024 MVP

In a year where 60% of the roster has been overhauled, there is a real opportunity for players to emerge into major roles. Like all Commanders fans, I’m praying that Jayden Daniels is finally the answer to the decades long QB search.

The early signs are good, and Daniels has looked the part in pre-season but the vast majority of rookie QB’s have some rough moments, and I expect him to be no different.

The player that I think will step forward to be the team’s MVP is a little predictable as he’s probably the team’s best and most influential player, but I think that this is the year when Terry McLaurin explodes as a number 1 receiver.

It is well known that McLaurin has had a different starting QB each and every season and the overall number of QB’s he’s played with is in double figures. Jayden Daniels should be the long-term answer to the QB puzzle and McLaurin is likely to be the main beneficiary. Washington’s receiver room isn’t the deepest and Kliff Kingsbury is likely to devise ways to get the ball in the hands of his number 1 target.

McLaurin has consistently produced 1,000-yard seasons and almost single handedly kept the passing game afloat, so I’m predicting that improved QB play and a desire to get the ball in his hands will lead to a breakout season from the Commanders talisman and see him recognized league wide as the star that he is.

Season record prediction

This is always a lottery, but it feels that this season is going to be even harder to predict. A new coaching staff, QB and 60% roster switch out means that nobody can realistically know what to expect from the 2024 Commanders.

Some have tipped them as potential surprise packages while others have them pegged for the number 1 overall pick next year.

For my money, this is very much year 1 of at least a 2 year overall re-build. I am a fan of what the new front office has done so far, not going crazy for high priced free agents looking for a quick fix, which as we know, rarely works. Instead, they’ve brought in some solid veterans with upside and the ability to develop a strong culture.

The draft will hopefully produce 4 or 5 starters and should set the foundation for a much more competitive and sustainable future. Another strong free agency class and draft in 2025 should see a roster with some star power but also depth.

I think the Commanders record will be better than in 2023, but I would put them somewhere in the 6- or 7-win category this season.

However, if Jayden Daniels hits big time, that total could be pushed up a couple of games. It’s tough to completely overhaul a roster and contend straight away, and there are areas of the roster that are still concerning (O line, corners, receivers), which I think caps their ceiling at just below the .500 level. Give me 7-10 with the arrow pointing firmly upwards in terms of Daniels and the development of an identity for the team heading into 2025.

And thoughts from Christian.

Who lights it up in 2024?

First off, that is a great call by Tony for the prediction of RB Robinson Jnr. I am certain that barring any injury, we are likely to see the best numbers yet from Brian and I have confidence he will indeed light it up in burgundy & gold.

I am certain also that we will see enough from rookie QB Jayden Daniels to be genuinely play-off excited in 2025, but expectations should be moderately tampered for any rookie coming into the NFL. This is the real deal league in terms of speed and Daniels, at least on paper, is not particularly well protected at both tackle spots in Washington.

For my light it up player, I will also go for one of the guys who is thankfully a carry-over.

DT Daron Payne I just feel is the kind of DL-guy that Quinn and Whitt Jnr will love. After a down-season in 2023 (let’s face it, it was a down-season for us all!), I expect Payne to reemerge as a dominant force in the NFC East.

His production dropped massively from a formidable 11.5 sacks in 2022 to just 4 in 2023, but I feel with improved coaching and an all-round better working environment, Daron will have a true bounce back season.

If I can have an extra-point in this category, I also believe it is being forgotten just how much the Commanders have improved at OC.

Kliff Kingsbury was once viewed as the next big thing in the National Football League, and I expect his time away and reflection will lead to a balanced and explosive OFF in Washington. For me, Kingsbury, over the godawful Eric Bieniemy, is the biggest personnel upgrade, other than the additions at LB of Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu who replaced the hapless duo David Mayo and Cody Barton.

Who disappoints in 2024?

Before Week 1 you always want to be positive, and it can seem somewhat unfair to put the spotlight on guys we feel will disappoint.

However, there are undoubtedly a few spots on the roster which, at best, have starters who are very much in the just another guy category.

As Tony says, it would be too easy to focus on the likes of the second-year CB Emmanuel Forbes and across from him is the less than stellar Benjamin St Juste. Will either of those two be here for the long-run in an Adam Peters-led Washington?

If nothing else, Quinn has consistently stated that he wants a team made up of guys who excel at 1-2 things. It might be specialised pass-rushers or speed out the backfield; or in the case of Forbes, a legitimate reputation as a ballhawk CB out of college.

If I had to pick a potential disappointment, will Jamin Davis really transform into a QB sacking OLB/DE? I cannot say I am wholly convinced on that one, but it does seem that Jamin is putting the work in, so I would very much like to be proved wrong and he develops into a Micah Parsons-lite role.

2024 MVP

In picking Daron Payne as my light it up player, that is a heavy hint that he is also my Commanders MVP prediction for the 2024 season.

To balance that I shall predict my OFF MVP in burgundy & gold.

I will stay in the trenches and go for RG Sam Cosmi. His transition from tackle to guard has been one of the few carry over successes of the last regime and Cosmi has that innate nastiness to his play that can make a fella reminisce of the days of the Hogs.

Standing at 6ft6, the Commanders would do well to sort a long-term deal for Cosmi and his future Pro-Bowl level potential. You also get the impression that Sam finally embraces that his life in the NFL is that of a Guard, and only emergency injury situations would place him back at RT.

Season record prediction

It is a cliché, but Rome was indeed not built in a day.

The Commanders have certainly addressed areas of considerable weakness (the Linebacker group being the most obvious), but the tackles are middling (Wylie and Lucas) or unknown (Coleman) and the CB positional group is also far from ideal.

Reading back through this blog pre-posting, it is interesting that both Tony and I have slightly downplayed the exciting talent of Jayden Daniels as the new rookie QB in town. The team itself has really protected Daniels since his drafting at pick 2 and this is a million miles away from the hype machine of Robert Griffin III.

Jayden speaks with an authority that shows considerable maturity for a rookie at the position and long-term there is significant optimism that Washington might finally have their guy.

However, with too many question marks across the 53 and such an overhaul of personnel, it is unlikely the Commanders finish with a positive record in 2024.

They’ll pick up seven wins in total, with a few close losses that might have led to a surprise play-off appearance if the burgundy & gold had that extra juice that isn’t there just yet.

Third in the NFC East, but with a looser pocket and good number of draft picks to be more of a challenger from 2025 onwards, is my prediction.