Through the First Five

That pre-season optimism swelled by the new ownership is a little deflated right now.

After flying out the blocks 2-0 with wins vs Arizona and Denver, the Commanders are looking less than lofty after registering triple Ls in their match-ups vs Buffalo, the Eagles and Chicago.

Most fans could ‘take’ the defeats against the Bills and Philadelphia for evidenced reasons of a) obviously superior opposition and b) the gutsy performance vs the Eagles which was a narrow OT loss.

The average fan did not expect Superbowl success for a roster that has glaring weaknesses, but nor did they envisage a Washington team that would see the Bears drop 40 points on the Commanders at FedEx on TNF.

It was a calamitous prime time defeat and one whereby fan and media frustration understandably spilt over.

So then, after the five first, are the Commanders in any position to dust themselves off and improve to become a Wild Card type play-off team? Here at UKHTTC, founder Christian Burt and regular contributor Simon Thurston recap the first quarter (and a bit) of the 2023 season.

First up, Simon.

How do you view Sam Howell in ‘23 so far?

I'm actually pretty pleased with what is the infancy of Sam Howell's career as Washington's starting QB.

I've read experts point to his potential as a future franchise quarterback. And, despite his struggles, where he has naturally shown some rookie indecision at times, causing him to hold the ball for too long, there are positive signs he has the skillset and the toughness, both mentally and physically, needed to be successful in the NFL.

Yes, he's been sacked a lot. Twenty-nine times to be precise (as at Week 5). What is remarkable in that stat, however, is that he's only lost one fumble. There are more positives, too. His completion rate of 68.6% puts him ahead of the likes of Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Kirk Cousins.

Howell is on pace to throw for over 4,500 yards this season, a feat that would put him second all-time in Franchise history, behind Kirk Cousins' 4,917 in 2016. And amidst all the offensive line issues, bringing with them a tsunami of pressures and sacks, he has only thrown 6 interceptions, 4 of which were in one game (where the wheels came off vs Buffalo).

Who is your first quarter MVP?

Given the struggles Washington has endured on the defensive side of the ball, my answer may surprise you. I feel DE Montez Sweat, who's playing on his fifth-year option this season, has had just the explosive start DC Jack Del Rio would have hoped for.

Ranked 10th in the NFL currently, having accumulated 4.5 sacks, 14 tackles (6 for a loss) and 5 assists, Sweat has also forced 2 fumbles. The first of which proved to be a game-changer in the Week One victory over Arizona.

His career season high of 9 sacks, which he racked up in his second season, is well within reach. I guess the question on many Commanders' fans' lips is this -- is the fast start to this season due to Sweat fulfilling his potential, or because it's a contract year. I suspect time will tell.

Biggest disappointment so far?

I'm not pinning this on any one individual, but on an entire unit: The defence.

Outside of Sweat, Kendall Fuller, and flashes from Jonathan Allen, Chase Young and Jamon Davis, the defence has largely struggled. Currently ranked 25th in total Defense, across the NFL they give up 32 points per game, currently (ranked 31st, ahead of Denver, who of course gave up 70 vs Miami) and show no ability to negate explosive plays and third down conversions.

What was a strength, particularly in 2020 and 2022, was preventing such explosive plays (defined as rushes of 12 yards or more and receptions of 16 yards or more). However, thus far the defence is giving up an explosive play 11.7% of the time, eighth highest in the league.

Prior to the season, what looked like a young, promising and talented secondary, is not only struggling, but looking thinner in numbers, with last week's injuries to Derrick Forrest and Jeremy Reaves. And whilst the defensive line is doing a pretty good job, it's not as dominant as would be expected with those four first rounders on the roster.

Who will bounce back/improve?

In a twist of fortunes, my answer is, once again, the Defence. I'm optimistic that they'll bounce back, because traditionally that's what JDR's defences in Washington have done.

In the last 13 years, Washington's defence has only broken the Top 10 twice. The first of which was three seasons ago, where the team ranked fourth for points allowed (20.6). The second was last season, where, although they were seventh, they allowed less points per game (20.2) than in 2020.

But those statistics don't tell the entire story. In 2020, they averaged 27 points per game in their first 6 games and were 1-5 as a result. In the ensuing 10 games, however, they improved to 16.7 points per game, holding teams to below 20 points on 6 occasions.

It was a similar tale last season, where the team started sluggishly, falling to a 1-4 record, and leaking over 25 points per game. They went 7-4-1 for the remainder of the season, giving up just 17.9 points per game. So the unit is traditionally (and frustratingly) a slower starter.

Final record after 17?

Before the season started, I was asked this question.

And posted on this very website, that the Commanders would notch a 10-7 record. Since then, my optimism has faded, and I can not only see a losing season on the horizon, but one of 6-11, which will likely cost Riverboat Ron his job.

Over to Christian for his thoughts.

How do you view Sam Howell in ‘23 so far?

The QB play in Washington has been bad for a long time.

It is easy, therefore, to crown Sam as the franchise guy of the future, but I am far from that opinion just yet. With such a drop back pass-happy scheme under Bieniemy, the yards through the air are a tad inflated and the INT rate is a bit lower than it should be as there have been several moments that have seen Howell get a tad lucky to not be picked off.

However, it would be outright churlish to not also offer praise where it is due.

Washington clearly took a flyer on Howell when he dropped to the fifth round in 2022. This was not a franchise ‘getting their guy’ and subsequently building an OL for that rookie under centre.

Sam has outperformed his fifth-round status and shows the ability to throw a lovely deep ball and to scramble and extend plays. He also entered this second year with a new OC and new system under Eric Bieniemy and to be sacked 29 times across five games is a combination of very lower tier OL protection and young QB growing pains.

In conclusion regarding the North Carolina graduate; I remain on the fence with zero commitment in opinion as to whether he will a) improve as his career progresses or b) become another guy under centre who did not have the full skill package to be a starter in the NFL.

Who is your first quarter MVP?

There have been past times when this question proved to be a headache, in a positive sense, with many standout candidates.

After the first five of the 2023 season, this simple task taxed my poor brain for around an hour to highlight the obvious MVP so far.

If it wasn’t for a mediocre showing vs the Bears, there could have been an argument for CB Kendall Fuller who had been very solid up until last Thursday. Across the much-vaunted DL, they have all flashed at times, but the DEF points against has been so bad, that you hard-pushed to offer any MVP praise on that side of the ball.

But then I think about the offense, and no-one stands out there either. Despite the Chicago misfire, I will stick with the veteran Fuller as the Commanders best player through the first opening five.

Biggest disappointment so far?

Another difficult question, but for the opposite reasons to the above.

I mean, man. So many have been below-par across the majority of the positional groups.

Rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes Jnr has been bullied out wide by some of the real deal WRs in the National Football League. Cody Barton who was a free agent LB pick-up from the Seahawks is currently graded 37.8 by PFF. He has been straight up bad and a huge disappointment so far.

Andrew Wylie and Charles Leno Jnr are at best JAG-level tackles, Jamin Davis continues to look a reach rather than a first-round LB.

Jahan Dotson has only 17 receptions for 140 yards and a single TD across five games. Terry McLaurin also has only one TD in 2023.

These are solid plus WR guys; so do we have to look at the coaching staff or is this simply new offensive system teething problems?

Who will bounce back/improve?

There has not been one positional group that hand on heart you could say has been dependable.

If this roster does not improve, it will 100% equate to the firing of the current Head Coach and likely the Defensive Coach too. Josh Harris seemed to indicate that any coaching changes are unlikely to happen during the 2023 season, but in the NFL, you cannot sit on your hands, especially when the HC is in his fourth year.

Historically under Rivera, the Commanders have not really been a quit team. I agree with Simon that the quartet across the DL start slowly and pick up as the season progresses. An opponent disrupting jump from Allen, Payne, Sweat and an improving Chase Young could make all the difference to the Win and Loss columns.

There also needs to be a balance to the pass and run; although as Sam Howell mentioned in his press conference on Wednesday that going pass heavy is an unfortunate essential when a team is chasing (and chasing badly).

There is the need to get the ball into the hands of the vaunted playmakers in burgundy & gold - the playmaker theme of the off-season was a consistent message from Rivera, and it has not really materialised.

Final record after 17?

A lot will depend on this Sunday.

Do your job is the current sign hanging in the locker room and it is vital that Washington bounce back vs the Falcons and take the win.

The schedule is a mixed bag. It would be fanciful to suggest the Commanders can beat Miami, San Francisco, and the Eagles. But what they can do, and what is not beyond the realms of possibility, is go at least 3-1 vs the NFC foes the New York Giants and Dallas.

Likely outcome for the rest of the season? They are competitive enough for the ownership to not blow the roster up; but my predicted final record of 8 wins will equate to some serious end-season analysis from the Josh Harris group in readiness for 24 and beyond.