Season Prediction including MVPs and disappointments

One week to go folks.

On Sunday 10th September, the Washington Commanders will run out at FedEx Field in a match-up where they’ll be significant favourites vs. an Arizona Cardinals franchise that is many an observer’s 32nd ranked team of the 32 in the NFL.

The biggest news of the off-season, in fact the biggest news of any Washington off-season, was the sale of the team to the Josh Harris Group. The acquisition of the Commanders has emboldened a fanbase that known little in the way of success during the painful tenure of past owner Daniel Snyder.

Whatever the final standings for the burgundy & gold in 2023, there is real optimism that, for the years ahead, the Commanders will be in far safer hands under Josh Harris. The team announced that FedEx Field will be sold out for Week 1 to underline that this fanbase might have been dormant for a long time: but is now very much alive again.

With regard to personnel, the Commanders continued the policy of rewarding those who have been drafted and delivered in Washington. Key figures such as Jon Allen, Terry McLaurin and Daron Payne are here for the foreseeable and the general consensus is that this is not a roster that needs blowing up.

Going into the 2023 season, here at UKHTTC we decided to discuss potential Commanders MVPs, who might disappoint a little and predicted season records. We welcome back Tony Wheat of Full Press Commanders and Simon Thurston to offer opinion, as well as UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt.

First up, it is Tony.

Who lights it up in 2023?

I’ll go with Jahan Dotson who will look to build on his promising rookie season.

Despite missing 5 games he hauled in 7 TD’s and while he may struggle to replicate that figure this year, he has shown that he is an excellent route runner with sure hands and perhaps most intriguingly the ability to gain yards after the catch.

If Sam Howell can get the ball out early and in stride, Dotson can be extremely dangerous. There were a couple of good examples of this in the last game of 2022 against the Cowboys and barring injury I expect Dotson to become WR1A to Terry McLaurin’s WR1.

Playing alongside McLaurin should also help Dotson see fewer double teams and become a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.

Who disappoints in 2023?

This is a tough one because everyone is optimistic at this time of year.

However, based on some training camp reports and a couple of busted coverages in pre-season, it could be that rookie Quan Martin takes a little longer to develop than the coaches may have hoped.

DC Jack Del Rio has praised Martin saying he’s been excellent, but he’s generally run with the 2nd team throughout the offseason and training camp and the speed of the game and communication and making quick decisions appear to be a challenge.

That’s not to say he won’t get there, but as a 2nd round pick it’s not unreasonable to have hoped he’d be a bit further on in his development and his 2023 season may be more about acclimating to the NFL level rather than being an immediate contributor, which would be disappointing.

Overall MVP for 2023

I’m going to go for Montez Sweat.

The return of Chase Young to health and hopefully performance, and the 2 monsters Payne and Allen on the inside should mean that Sweat has the opportunity to face some favourable looks and I’m backing him to take the leap and become a Pro Bowl/All Pro level performer.

Always strong against the run, Sweat has never quite delivered the sack totals you’d expect from an elite D end (although sacks alone are obviously not the only indicator of how good a D end is), and, as he has said himself, he needs to turn some of the multiple pressures that he generates into sacks.

With a talented secondary hopefully forcing QB’s to hold onto the ball a little longer, Sweat will break out and become a truly dominant player and MVP in 2023.

Season prediction record for 2023

The difference between being 7-10 and 10-7 in the NFL generally is very slim and comes down to a few plays each game, luck with injuries and the occasional officiating call (yes, I’m thinking of the non-PI call at the end of the Giants game last year!).

Finishing 8-8-1 last year wasn’t a bad outcome given the largely disastrous QB play, but with a few weeks to go in the season, a wildcard was a real possibility before a late season collapse.

In 2023, the Commanders face a tough schedule with 3 playoff teams in their own division plus inter conference matchups against the strong looking AFC East and intra conference games against the NFC West.

It’s a far from easy slate of games and a strong start is needed which has often proved to be an issue for Washington. A home win on week 1 against Arizona is non-negotiable and going to Denver in week 2 presents a reasonable chance to go 2-0.

There are any number of important components to a successful season, but having even respectable QB play is a must.

That puts Sam Howell firmly in the spotlight, and if he can deliver league average QB play Washington has a chance to be a playoff team.

New OC, Eric Bieniemy should be able to dial up an offense to suit Howell’s strengths which will help the young QB in his first year as a starter. The offensive line can help him by being competent and clearly Washington has a core of talented playmakers and a potentially elite Defense (although defensive performance year to year is generally more variable and less consistent than offensive).

Wearing my optimistic hat (as it is still August after all!), I’ll go for a 10-7 season and a wildcard berth behind the Eagles in the NFC East.

Thoughts from Simon.

Who lights it up in 2023?

I'm excited to see how Sam Howell operates in a full season, after understandably sitting for most of 2022 in his rookie year.

Howell had an impressive preseason, completing 28 of 37 passes (75.7%), for 265 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. And the stat that I'm really happy about, zero turnovers. In fact, his passer rating of 122.0 was fourth-best among quarterbacks throwing at least 30 passes in the preseason.

Yes, yes, I know it was only the preseason. And despite having an array of offensive weapons -- both to throw and hand the ball off to -- I'm also mindful that the Commanders offensive line hasn't always played as well as fans would like.

However, Howell has the traits to be the QB this franchise has been craving for more than two decades. Mobility, accuracy, and an ability to read the field and throw the rock. As is often the case (and as Washington knows from painful experience), keeping him healthy may be the key to Howell's success.

Who disappoints in 2023?

I'm writing this in the hope of some reverse psychology. So, I'm putting that out there straight away. For Jamin Davis, this, I feel, is a critical season.

Washington's first round pick (19th overall) in the 2021 draft, he led the team with 104 tackles last season, whilst also notching up 9 tackles for loss and 3 sacks.

But how will he handle the expectation of a breakout season, and more importantly, of potential jail time. And in terms of the latter, what might the league's stance be, should he be convicted? As I write this, the reckless driving case has moved to jury trial in March 2024. This may add significant weight on a young man's shoulders and only he knows how he will cope.

As fans, we can only hope, should he be able to play, that he uses it as motivation to go out there and deliver.

Overall MVP for 2023

Given the strength of our defensive line, particularly with Chase Young's return (fingers crossed) and the impact that could have, I'm going for Kamren Curl.

Entering his fourth season, the former seventh round draft pick has developed into a key piece in the Commanders' young secondary. In order to gauge Curl's importance to the team, let's quickly look at the impact of the 5 games he missed last season.

In the first 2 matchups of the season, against Jacksonville and Detroit, Curl was absent having undergone wrist surgery. During those 2 games, Washington gave up 531 passing yards and 5 TDs, whilst grabbing just 1 interception.

Curl also missed the final 3 games of the season. And in the 2 that mattered (excluding the week 18 win against Dallas), the secondary again had its struggles, yielding another 400+ yards and 5 TDs, whilst again grabbing a solitary pick.

Curl is a productive player and has that valuable intangible, great leadership. If that much heralded defensive line can pressure quarterbacks more frequently, Curl is likely to have his best season yet in 2023.

Season prediction record for 2023

After just 3 winning seasons out of the last 15, many experts are once again predicting Washington to prop up the NFC East this season. Although I'm clearly biased, you won't be surprised to learn I don't share that sentiment. However, I am realistic, and so here's my take on this.

In the NFL, any given Sunday is a mantra for a reason. It's tough to win, period. The margins are fine, staying healthy is a challenge (and requires a dose of luck, too) and just one mistake, by a coach, player or official, can be the difference between a W and an L.

This coming season, Washington's schedule, on paper, looks a tough one. In fact, at .535, it's the eighth most difficult in the league. Compare this to 12 months ago, where their schedule strength was .462 and tied with the Cowboys for the easiest in the league. But football isn't played on paper, I hear you cry! And you're right.

The NFC East is making strides towards the powerhouse division it once was in the 80s and 90s, with no-nonsense defenses and offenses that could score on anyone. This presents 6 tough matchups straight off the bat... and it doesn't get any easier, either.

They face some tricky AFC opponents, with visits to high-altitude Denver in week 2, New England in November and Aaron Rodgers' Jets in New York on Xmas eve, as well as welcoming the Bills and Dolphins to FedEx Field.

How will they fare? I believe we'll see an improvement compared to 2022. With Eric Bieniemy's offense adding some much-needed energy and expansion, and the development of Sam Howell, there's much to get excited about.

However, we need to be mindful it's only year 1 of the new installation of this offense and for Howell as a starter. Patience will be needed and I'm sure, at times, there will be frustrations.

That being said, I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a record of 10-7. I truly see 10 winnable games in that schedule, if, and it is an if, they play to their potential. Do that, and who knows, we may be seeing Commanders football in January, something new owner Josh Harris will surely be happy with.

And last but not least, comment from Christian.

Who lights it up in 2023?

Overall, this is a pretty young group of players, with the Front Office policy one of drafting and developing, rather than huge swings for FA stars. When thinking of light it up, I envisage a guy who ends the season as a legitimate NFL ‘name’.

It is a sign of at least a half-decent roster that there are a number of candidates in 2023 who could light it up in burgundy & gold. Jahan Dotson is hard to resist as Tony mentions, but I thought I would stay on the offensive side of the football and, like Simon, I choose QB Sam Howell in the light it up category.

If we can’t be bold going into a new season; then when can we?

The Commanders took a flier on QB Sam Howell in the 2022 Draft.

The one-time likely first rounder fell to the fifth, and no matter how much the Front Office in Washington might praise Howell: fifth round equals in their mind that Sam was a developmental QB and a rolling of the dice.

After leading the Commanders to a Week 17 victory vs Dallas in 2022, Howell has taken further strides forward in training camp (notably footwork) and pre-season, He comfortably beat out Jacoby Brissett as QB1 in D.C., which genuinely surprised me as Brissett is a quality back-up in the NFL.

Of all the traits I like in a QB, calmness is very high on the list. Howell is very much an “on to the next play” QB and that is a huge green tick in the NFL.

He has the arm, he has off-script playmaking abilities, and he has stud receiving weapons in Dotson, McLaurin, and Samuel plus the safety blanket of a decent RB core in Washington.

Who disappoints in 2023?

Going into Week 1 of the NFL season is a fresh canvas, so perhaps I have been a bit mean by posing this question for the blog.

Disclaimer: I do not feel there will be any disappoint due to a lack of effort from any Commander. However, the question must be answered and for me disappointment might well be purely in the shape of fitness (or a lack thereof).

For my sins, I remain unconvinced that Chase Young can ever have the same impact that he demonstrated during his rookie campaign. I have zero doubts that Young has done everything humanly possible to get back to his explosive best.

However, there remain pointers that returning 100% from a torn ACL and ruptured right knee patellar tendon is a tough ask. Week 1 looks unlikely after a lingering training camp stinger, plus the Commanders declining the fifth-year option was also not a great sign for a DE who was pretty much unanimously viewed as a sure thing when selected as the overall second pick of the 2020 Draft.

I have always had the nagging feeling that a lot of organisational change in 2020, meant that Rivera, with it being his first year as the then Redskins Head Coach, took the safest possible pick in Chase Young, rather than a deeper dive into the Draft 2020 options.

Would absolutely love to be proved wrong, of course!

Overall MVP for 2023

Step forward Emmanuel Forbes Jnr, who has a chance to be the overall rookie DPOY in the NFL.

Taken with the 16th pick of the 2023 Draft, Forbes Jnr will make an immediate impact as the LCB in Washington. A lot was made of his rather skinny frame, but that has mostly been put to bed in pre-season as Emmanuel demonstrated his is not shy of tackling responsibilities.

Ranked as the number 1 ball hawk CB coming into the NFL Draft, Emmanual will add a large dose of razzle dazzle to the Commanders backfield and will become a firm fan favourite.

What also stood out for me was the joint practice with Baltimore; Forbes Jnr oozes confidence and self-belief, which is vital when playing one of the toughest positions in sports at Cornerback. He can chat but has the talent to back this up.

It is arguably unfair to put pressure on such a young player; but I believe Forbes Jnr will come up big in NFC East match ups against some difficult WRs and cement his reputation for INTs.

Season prediction record for 2023

Throughout the off-season I have pretty much thought nine wins was the ceiling for Washington in 2023, which would make the Commanders continue to be a firmly in middle of the pack team in the NFL.

However, going into this season, and with the expectation of a frenzied FedEx Field, I honestly do not feel in the shadow of any side in the NFC East division or even league wide. Washington have roster built steadily with no real character concerns or locker room issues; and with some minor exceptions, they have been a very together/no quit unit each and every Sunday.

The OL has been the poor cousin in comparison to the rest of the roster build, and it is that weakness which makes me feel that a double-digit season is likely just out of reach.

I will stick, therefore, with 9-8, but with the QB position viewed as settled in the immediate future and finally granted some actual quality protection (first round draft and FA) from ’24 onwards.