Pitfalls, Strengths and MVPs

The good news of star WR Terry McLaurin signing an extended contract in Washington was met with unanimous acclaim across the Commanders fanbase.

The backdrop of this extension allows for pause and to look ahead to the 2022 season for the Commanders. UKHTTC founder Christian Burt and regular contributor Tony Wheat debate the strengths of the roster, potential pitfalls, who might be the MVP and record predictions.

We also extend a warm welcome to UKHTTC debutant, Andy Burrows, who spreads the message of Hope! Be sure to tune into The Bunker as Andy is a co-host.

First up, Tony Wheat of Full Press Commanders.

Strengths of the roster

The Commanders enter year 3 of the Ron Rivera era in a reasonably strong position, with the coach having made a concerted effort to build depth across the roster. Consequently, a glance at the depth chart shows a solid squad with few gaping holes (although there are undoubtedly several question marks).

For the first time in a while the offensive skill positions appear to be deep and potentially contain several difference makers, while the offensive line looks capable on paper despite the losses of RG Brandon Scherff and LG Ereck Flowers.

Both the receiver and running back groups look strong with the newly re-signed Terry McLaurin headlining a mouth-watering trio alongside rookie Jahan Dotson, and the hopefully healthy Curtis Samuel. If you sprinkle in Dyami Brown and Cam Sims there’s plenty of flavours and variety there, but time will tell if the reality is as impressive as the potential.

The running back group also has a taste for all seasons. RB Antonio Gibson still has much to prove but played hurt most of last year and was showing signs of growth as the season drew to a close. Re-signing JD McKissic retains the pass catching back option and rookie Brian Robinson is a strong, bruising complement to both.

Defensively, the front 4 remains a strength on paper, despite last season's disappointments and uncertainty over Chase Young’s health. The interior of the D line looks particularly strong with Phidarian Mathis added to the rotation alongside Jon Allen and Daron Payne, assuming he isn’t traded.

Potential pitfalls

As always, injuries could be a massive issue. Unusually, the current injury issues may have a major impact before a ball has been kicked in anger.

Three starters missed the whole offseason and minicamp with injuries, and there’s no guarantee that any of them will be suiting up for week 1.

Both Chase Young and Logan Thomas’s ACL injuries weren’t simple tears, with Young requiring a patellar tendon graft and Thomas also suffering MCL and meniscus damage. Their expected return dates are being kept under wraps, and while neither have been ruled out for week 1, it wouldn’t be a surprise to find neither on the field. There’s no sense in rushing either back with a long season ahead.

The third injured party is centre Chase Roullier whose nasty leg break and ankle damage has been slow to mend. There is optimism that he will be ready for training camp, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him on the PUP list. The extremely capable Wes Schweitzer has been filling in and the drop off wouldn’t be too drastic, but Roullier is a very underrated player and a team leader, so his return will be extremely welcome.

Depth is a significant area of concern on Defense, particularly at LB, corner, and safety. The addition of a veteran LB has been expected and may yet happen, but the Commanders spent less than 15% of defensive snaps in base 4-3 last year, with the standard nickel and buffalo nickel personnel group employed far more regularly, so they may stick with what they have. If that is the case, then the depth behind Cole Holcomb and Jamin Davis would be a major concern.

In the secondary there are also significant questions. Benjamin St-Juste was a mini camp darling and if he can stay healthy and use his outstanding length and short area quickness, the Commanders will have another solid corner to add to Kendall Fuller and William Jackson, who will hopefully improve on an inconsistent debut season.

Any injuries though and the depth below those three is unproven, with Danny Johnson, Corn Elder and rookie Christian Holmes being next in line.

The depth at safety also is unproven behind starters Kam Curl and Bobby McCain. Rookie Percy Butler and second year man Darrick Forest will have the opportunity to make a name for themselves, particularly in sub-packages, along with vet Jeremy Reaves.

It seems that the Commanders are only a couple of injuries on Defense away from being down to the bare bones, particularly in the back 7, and that is a serious concern.

Commanders MVP and record prediction

This could go a number of ways but armed with a new contract and a competent NFL level starting QB, this will be the year that Terry McLaurin elevates himself into the top echelon of receivers.

McLaurin has always been appreciated by the wider NFL community but never seems to be mentioned in the very highest circles. 8 starting QB’s and being the only real threat in the offense meant that McLaurin performed miracles to top 1000 yards in 2 of his 3 seasons.

It is conceivable that with better QB play and additional threats to draw some of the coverage away from him, McLaurin could significantly improve his production.

Data from the 2021 season suggested that McLaurin gained as much separation in coverage as Justin Jefferson, he just lacked a QB able to put the ball in the right place. Look for him to top 90 catches, 1,200 yards and 8 TD’s this season.

The schedule has in theory been kind to the Commanders in 2022, but the whole NFC East is similarly blessed. Of course, it's impossible to compare one season to the next in the NFL as so many variables change, and a few plays made or conceded can be the difference between 10-7 and 7-10.

Unlike last year however, the Commanders do not face the brutal QB schedule that they encountered in 2021. There are of course no easy games, but not having to face Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady has to be helpful!

The opening 2 games against the 2 worst teams from 2021 offers an opportunity for a really positive start, and while nothing is guaranteed, as both the Jaguars and Lions could be much improved, anything less than a 2-0 start will be viewed as a disappointment. That could then give the Commanders real momentum and confidence to attack the rest of the season.

The trade for Carson Wentz seems to have been generally derided, but what many observers have seemed to miss is that the Commanders have endured literally league worst QB play for the last 3 years, and even league average play by the new signal caller should see a significant uptick in the offense.

If the Defense can return to something approaching top 10 performance, there is a real chance that the Commanders will sneak under the radar and make a serious run for the division. The Eagles seem to be flavour of the month with the national scribes and the Cowboys will always be hyped as long as they have a pulse, but I’m unusually optimistic for the season ahead. I think 10 wins is definitely possible, so I’ll go for 10-7 and a playoff berth either through taking the division or a wild card spot.

And now thoughts from UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt.

Strengths of the roster

This is the third year of the five-year contract in D.C for Head Coach Ron Rivera.

It is, therefore, a Washington team in near enough win now mode; but does the burgundy & gold have the personnel in the building to reclaim the NFC East division?

There is a ton of potential in the locker room and the defensive front four of Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat (first rounders one and all) has all the ability in the World to evolve from potential domination to actual domination in the trenches.

The roster has also been boosted on the offensive side. I have found it a tad strange that Washington were viewed as being relatively quiet in free agency, when the team made the aggressive move at the Most Important Position in Sports™ in acquiring QB Carson Wentz.

And in McLaurin, Penn State rookie first rounder Jahan Dotson and the *fingers crossed* fit & healthy Curtis Samuel, there is many a receiving weapon for Carson to get comfortable in D.C.

Pitfalls

This Washington roster has a nice balance, and, in most positions, there is also reasonable depth, with I am sure some moderate FA spending still to come at Safety and LB.

The team will, however, likely be missing TE1 Logan Thomas for at least a few weeks of the season, and the group after Thomas is very inexperienced. John Bates would likely be the next man up and demonstrated excellent blocking skills and some useful grabs in his rookie year. Perhaps Washington might well ease Carson in by establishing the run game early doors, and a player like Bates might well be useful as that additional blocker.

Keeping Wentz on his feet is crucial, and the Commanders did lose star RG Brandon Scherff (interestingly to week one opponents Jacksonville) and LG Ereck Flowers (still a FA). The OL, is however, a strong position of depth and adding the experienced veteran duo of Andrew Norwell (interestingly from week one opponents Jacksonville!) and Trai Turner is a solid move.

There are a number of guys on the roster who you feel need to make that second-year jump, whether than be a second season in the league (Jamin Davis for example) or second season in Washington (William Jackson III). With a lack of star names in the LB and backfield, Washington will be hoping that Davis and Cole Holcomb plus the first choice CBs and Safeties can stay healthy.

Commanders MVP and record prediction

I’m going out on a bit of a limb here and choosing a guy on the roster who I feel is a) a bit underrated and b) is growing into the position.

Antonio Gibson has all the physical tools needed to get the job done at RB for the Commanders. Washington brought in two guys from Alabama in the draft who I feel belong in the “higher floor, lower ceiling” category, and one of those was Brian Robinson Jr (the other being Phidarian Mathis for the DL). I feel Robinson Jr in his first season will take on the baton of acquiring those shorter punishing yards and this will keep Gibson fresher.

Towards the end of the season, Gibson was starting to flash legitimate RB instincts. My bold prediction is that 2022 will be the year that Washington reaps the rewards of investing in the athleticism of Antonio who will carry the ball into the end-zone 10 times and become a highlight reel star and league-wide name.

If we see a healthy and hitting the hole Antonio Gibson Week 1 of the season: anything is possible for the burgundy & gold.

And to the record prediction.

First off, I feel health will be a key issue and keeping Wentz upright is a priority. An experienced OL should be able to do that, and I would be surprised if the QB play is not considerably better than in 2021. So, if you have a QB, then you have a chance, right?

A prediction of ten wins is not actually beyond comprehension and that would match match the excitement of the 2012 Griffin III season. The approach of Ron Rivera has been to reward those who put in the work, and the long-term contract extensions of Jonathan Allen and Terry McLaurin are testament to the better culture building going on in D.C.

10-7, a single play off win, but falling just short thereafter.

And finally, the last word is with UKHTTC debutant, Andy Burrows of The Bunker Podcast as he sprinkles some HOPE into the season prediction.

Expectations v reality. Those could be too key words as we approach the first ever season as the Washington Commanders.

On paper we look at the 2022 schedule and automatically the expectations go up. We look at the first 3 games Jaguars, Lions, and the Eagles.

Who wouldn’t think 3-0 start? Well, that’s where reality creeps in as a Washington Commanders fan. Reality tells us this is Washington and literally not one fan would be surprised if the start was flipped 0-3.

However, as we come of the back of our star WR signing a new deal & for the first time in many years a reliable QB under centre we have a new contender in Washington: HOPE!

For the first time in a number of years we have hope and actual realistic hope.

With Terry being the highest paid WR in team history the franchise have made a statement letting everyone know we want to keep our best players in DC.

Combine that with a fit again DE Chase Young and a returning Logan Thomas should get hearts racing.

Now throw in your 1st draft pick and a young hungry team then why should we have HOPE?? Looking at 2022 it’s how we manage that expectation.

Will there be set backs? Absolutely. However, every dog has its day and I have a feeling our day is coming. Might it be this 2022 coming season?

Well, it’s definitely creeping up on us. If history has taught us anything it is that life in Washington is never black & white.

However, under Ron Rivera you can definitely see the forest through the trees, and it has been a while since we had that transparency in Washington. Like everything in life, we will need a little luck along the way but if any fanbase is deserving of some luck it is this fanbase both in the UK and the USA.

So strap in, get ready, because the good ship Washington is ready for take-off and for the first time in a long time we are heading in the right direction.

HTTC & see you all at Game 1.