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In the first of a new regular UKHTTC feature entitled Extra Points, founder Christian Burt and contributor par excellence Joshua Edwards discuss pressing questions for all things Washington Commanders.
Three topics this week:
Is there *any* chance the Commanders sneak a wild card spot?
Sam Howell & Eric Bieniemy, our duo for the foreseeable?
Predictions for Sunday vs the New York Giants
First up, Christian.
Is there *any* chance the Commanders sneak a wild card spot?
Joshua lists the remaining schedule further down the blog and as he rightly points out, it is tough to get to a minimum of nine wins.
The late field goal loss to Seattle was likely the 2023 season nail in the coffin and the Commanders already had one eye on subsequent seasons when they traded away their two starters off the edge.
Whilst I still believe it was the correct decision to trade DEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young for future draft capital, such moves undoubtedly weaken an already struggling defensive side of the ball in the short-term (i.e. this season and the remaining games).
We were not going to pay what Chicago did for Montez and the relationship broke down with CY99, but the Commanders pass rush is essentially now in major just another guy categorisation.
Perhaps due to long-term Washington fan syndrome, I am 100% convinced that San Fran will bowl into the FedEx, and I will be crying into my NYE punch when Chase Young and Trent Williams leave the field after crushing any post-season hopes.
At the start of the campaign, if you’d have stated that the ball in the hands of essentially rookie QB Sam Howell was our last shot at the play-offs, well, I would have thought you were a screw loose. However, it is the offense side of the football where any wild card hopes might still linger.
Sam Howell & Eric Bieniemy, our duo for the foreseeable?
You would like to think so.
The Commanders are essentially testing a new long-term blueprint in 2023, and it mirrors the Chiefs during Bieniemy's time as the OC in Kansas; score more and score quickly.
It is not easy to master the Eric-version of the West Coast system, but Howell has thrown some absolute dimes in 2023. He leads the NFL in yards (albeit with such a drop back QB system that is not wholly surprising) and perhaps more importantly demonstrates many of the essential intangibles required in the NFL (move on to the next play etc).
Obviously full judgement is better after the completion of 17 games, but I’d go further and suggest that keeping Howell, Robinson Jnr, McLaurin, Dotson, and Samuel together with Bieniemy for the foreseeable would be wise.
Predictions for Sunday
Let’s face it, with New York’s starting QB, Tommy DeVito, still living at home with his parents, it would be a sackable loss if the Commanders do not get the job done on Sunday at FedEx.
The likes of Dexter Lawrence and, if healthy, Kayvon Thibodeaux, will be let loose with the Wink Martindale blitz, but Washington and Sam Howell and the OL have shown good development in avoiding sacks and protection; I do not see Sunday as a step-back in the wrong direction.
The Cowboys put up 49 vs New York in Week 10, and whilst I don’t see numbers that high for the Commanders, they still put up 28, with DeVito and company not equipped to reach even double digits bar a Saquon break out TD. Washington 28-10 Giants.
And over to Joshua:
Is there *any* chance the Commanders sneak a wild card spot?
In short, yes, but it’s very small.
This season, unlike most, the playoff picture in the NFC is crystallising early. Take a look at the current NFC picture in the form of PFFs ‘win-loss leverage’.
Dallas, Seattle, and Minnesota all have 6 wins as Wildcard teams as it stands. Washington has 4 wins, and likely needs to win 9 games at a minimum to even have a chance. Looking at the schedule below, can you see another 5 or 6 wins out of this:
Vs. Giants
@ Cowboys
Vs. Dolphins
@ Rams
@ Jets
Vs. 49ers
Vs. Dallas
The likely best-case scenario is to win four of these and hope for a Seattle implosion. Even then, you’d need to best their record as they hold the tiebreaker.
I won’t rule it out, but I wouldn’t bet on it folks.
Sam Howell & EB, our duo for the foreseeable?
I hope so, but in the same capacity as now (EB as OC).
Howell’s development has been remarkable over the course of half a season. We learned pretty early that he can make all the throws and that he has an exceptionally calm head on his shoulders, but it was the record setting sack pace which had most people the most concerned.
That’s died down over the past month, giving us cause for hope that Howell could develop further, in lieu of taking hit after hit, and become not just a viable starter but a good or, dare we say, elite QB. Bieniemy takes a good deal of credit – he’s adapted (albeit week to week rather than in-game mostly) and he’s getting the ball out of Sam’s hands early most of the time. Boy, when he has a pocket, watch out.
Take some of Howell’s numbers with a pinch of salt. He is throwing the ball at a record clip, and hasn’t had a bye week yet, so any ‘league leading’ traditional metric like yards or completions is impressive but not overly important.
But this is the EB way and, to be honest, I’m all for it. Reps. Practice. Tough game situations on the road. Aggressive DCs (we’ll come to that in part 3…). EB’s offensive philosophy (throwing the ball so much) is fast-tracking Howell’s’10,000 hours’. It hasn’t broken him, far from it. I’d like to keep the two together for another year, under a new front office and HC.
‘You know how you get to Carnegie Hall, don’t you? Practice, practice, practice.’
Predictions for Sunday
A win but not a blowout.
Four weeks back Wink Martindale and the Giants Defense bamboozled Howell and the offensive line as it was then. That approach won’t change from the New York DC on Sunday and may even ramp up given the context that they are starting Tommy DeVito at QB with Daniel Jones out for the year.
The Giants are as close to ‘tanking’ on the year as is feasible in a sport with 100+ players and staff all wanting to succeed in some fashion.
For Washington, who opened as 10+ point favourites for the first time in 10 years, this is a must win. I suspect Howell and the new rotation on the line (Chris Paul at LG and Tyler Larsen at C) are more prepared and more confident going in, which will help.
Jack Del Rio, who is hanging by a thread as DC, has a chance to key in on the run game like no other game this year. Stop Saquon, stop the Giants. Expect to hear ‘Cinco package’ ad nauseum. Howell and co. shouldn’t have to put up more than 17.
Washington 21-7 Giants.
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