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You wait and wait and wait for the NFL season to begin.
And, from a Washington fan perspective, this abruptly changes to “make this never-ending hell end”.
Can we still look forward to 2024 with any degree of optimism for this long suffering fanbase? Well there is some good news on the horizon.
The Commanders are a) picking high in the 2024 draft b) have a decent amount of salary cap to spend c) will be doing this without the current coaching and FO staff and d) are no longer bound by the ineptitude of a certain Daniel Snyder (perhaps the most important of this particular quartet.
Here at UKHTTC, we welcome back Tony Wheat of Full Press Commanders and founder Christian Burt to consider what the Washington NFL franchise might do if picking at #3 in the NFL Draft 2024.
We also have superb bonus content from Scott Hartley of the One Point Safety podcast profiling the scenarios and talent in the 2024 Draft.
First up, Christian.
All eyes should be on the Josh Harris Group (JHG) the moment this season ends.
The first official day of the FA signing period is the 13th of March 2024. The Commanders will need to have hired a new GM as an absolute code burgundy priority as soon as is humanly possible. It is this hire that will determine so much of the 2024 free agency and the subsequent draft; and will provide an opportunity to erase the thumb twiddling antics of the outgoing front office.
It is expected that Washington will write off the Head Coach-centric approach as a disaster and look to hire a General Manager in the more traditional sense.
Expect a big play from the JHG from 8th January onwards for a current assistant GM who has impressed elsewhere. This hire will then dictate the Commanders subsequent appointments both on and off the field and will mark the official start of ‘being excited about the burgundy and gold again’.
Having a high pick in the 2024 Draft gives the Commanders plenty of options and, for me, there should be a theme for the 2024 off-season written in big bold letters: ACQUIRE MORE BLUE-CHIP NFL PLAYERS.
It has been abundantly apparent during this mediocre season that the burgundy and gold lack top-tier game changing talent on the roster. This needs to be addressed from the 13th of March with a decent salary cap to go-get stud guys in the NFL.
Washington need to be aggressive in free agency and align this ethos with a prioritising of Best Player Available™ in the draft.
As Tony alludes to below, there are a ton of holes on the Washington roster; but top-tier talent can often raise those around them. Washington need, by the end of both the 2024 FA and Draft, to have at least three or four alpha NFL players on the roster, ready to be coached by a forward-thinking HC and staff.
So, who will Washington take at the likely #3 spot?
Chicago are the intrigue here: do they ride with Justin Fields for another season and pick the best player in the 2024 draft (Marvin Harrison WR Ohio State) and pass over the top two QB prospects in Drake Maye or Caleb Williams? My guess is they take Williams and look to shop Fields.
Would a team like the Commanders show interest in Fields? With a high second round pick (from Chicago for Montez Sweat!) it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Washington hand that second rounder back to the Bears for Fields if they feel he still has the ceiling that made Justin the #1 pick of the 2021 draft. Remember, the Bears are often plain flat out dumb; they might not have the eye to recognise the talent in their own building.
However, back to reality, as I do not feel Washington make that move, and if Williams is taken at 1, I am certain that Harrison Jnr will be taken by the Cardinals as a WR1 for Kyler Murray.
All of a sudden, Washington have a hot pick at 3: Prototype NFL-sized QB Drake Maye is in their lap. Given the draft profile comparison to Justin Herbert, the Commanders avoid any trade back thoughts and do not hesitate to call in a North Carolina QB for the second time in three years. Welcome to D.C, Drake!
Next, some thoughts from Tony Wheat.
As an epically disastrous season draws to a close for the Commanders, thoughts turn to the NFL Draft and a potential top 3 pick.
Draft season is about to commence, and player evaluations, mock drafts and narratives will change considerably between now and the end of April. What won’t change is that Washington’s roster has more holes than a golf course and could go in a number of directions with the 3rd pick in the draft (assuming the current position holds).
A month or so ago, the idea of drafting a QB would have been a lot more controversial than it is now.
Sam Howell was playing pretty well, and the Commanders draft position was somewhere around 9 or 10. However, the last month has been a disaster for Howell and the team as a whole, and the most likely selection with the 3rd overall pick is a QB.
Looking at Howell’s overall body of work and not just the last few weeks it’s fair to say that he has been solid. The question remains though, can he be anything more than a league average QB? If the answer to that is no, then Josh Harris and his group will almost certainly want to bring in their own ‘face of the franchise’. They may even have done that however well Howell had played.
It is impossible to know if there’ll be trades affecting the top of the draft, and if Arizona decides to stick with Kyler Murray, they may well look to auction the number 2 pick to the highest bidder. Assuming the consensus top 2 of Caleb Williams and Drake Maye remain the same throughout the draft process, Washington runs the risk of losing out on both if they sit tight.
The option to trade up into either the first or second pick remains live if they fall in love with either Williams or Maye. There are other QB’s with their supporters including Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix, but the general consensus appears to be that neither are top 3 picks, although I would not be surprised if Daniels shoots up draft boards in the coming months.
If Washington sits tight and somehow misses out on Williams/Maye, the consolation prize would likely be the best Tackle in the draft which would be either Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt.
There is an argument to stick with Howell and build a wall in front of him, and had he not fallen off a cliff in the last few weeks that may have happened. It’s widely acknowledged that the offensive line play hasn’t been good, but it’s actually been better the last few weeks and Howell has still struggled mightily.
Fashanu and Alt both have the attributes of a franchise Tackle and either would be a huge upgrade. Building a wall for your QB is never a bad idea, I just think the owners will find the temptation of bringing in their own QB too much to pass on.
The wildcard at 3 and possibly the best player in the draft is WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
For those of us that remember how good his dad was it’s astonishing to hear that the son is considered to be a step up from the father!
However, although I’m generally a ‘best player available’ kind of guy, I think the need for either a QB or Tackle takes priority, particularly as the options in those positions also appear to be blue chip players.
In conclusion, I’d say the number 3 pick is most likely to be used on a QB. The new ownership may feel that this is potentially going to be their best opportunity to bring in a franchise QB and as a result will find a way to take either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
And Scott now has an in-depth look into scenarios if Washington holds that #3 pick.
Well, here we are after a tumultuous season with a current record of 4-11 and the Commanders hold the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft for 2024. I have been asked by UKHTTC what I would do with the number 3 overall pick.
Scenario 1
Stay put – We could easily stay put and build around Sam Howell, (the option I wanted to happen), drafting an outstanding Left Tackle would be the play. Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu are the standout picks at the very top of the draft.
Joe Alt – 6”8 315 pounds LT – Notre Dame
Joe Alt is the plug and play Left Tackle who can instantly do the job and to a very high standard. The Notre Dame standout has exceptional feet and is big enough to bully Edge rushers in the run protection but does need a little work in pass protection.
Alt has a tall, lean frame that carries its mass extremely well and has great overall length. A former TE with elite movement skills who can instantly close gaps with explosiveness.
He channels length, burst into powerful knockback force, and can use hips to generate dominating torque. Alt has perennial all-pro written all over him and would be a tremendous upgrade to the offensive line.
Olu Fashanu – 6”6 319 pounds LT – Penn State
Olu Fashanu did not give up a pressure or sack in 281 snaps for Penn State this season.
Fashanu possesses an ideal height-weight-length combination, showing impressive proportion and body mass suitable for an elite tackle prospect.
He exhibits natural athleticism in both pass protection and run blocking, executing a diverse array of blocks with expertise.
In pass sets, he showcases fluidity, reaching ideal depth quickly and effectively countering defenders with hand punches and counters. Olu demonstrates significant hand strength, impacting defenders' pass rush, and displays agility to counter and close the distance effectively.
As a run blocker, he excels with his athleticism, especially in executing reach blocks, advancing to the second level, and pulling into space with precision. He combines power and athleticism seamlessly, capitalizing on his frame's length and density to maximize punch power and extend to lock defenders.
Though Fashanu is still developing, his growth and athletic foundation suggest a high ceiling, drawing comparisons to top-tier offensive line prospects of recent years.
Scenario 2 – The Quarterback – Trade up
As previously said a new GM and Head Coach may want to move away from Sam and this now looks the most likely scenario, and I am almost 99% certain we are looking at taking a Quarterback the question remains which one and do we trade up to do this?
One scenario, to guarantee you get “your guy”, is that we trade up to the number 1 overall pick.
The differential between the 1st overall pick and the 3rd overall pick is around 800 points in trade value. It wouldn’t take a king’s ransom to move up and with 5 picks in the top 100 picks in the 2024 NFL draft this could be a viable option. It would take the swapping of first round picks, Chicago’s own pick 41 overall a third-round pick (pick 67) and either a player or maybe the 100th overall pick.
There are 2 overall Quarterbacks who are ahead of the rest of the pack. Caleb Williams from USC and Drake Maye from North Carolina.
Caleb Williams is the only Quarterback that you would trade up for and be comfortable knowing you have the guy.
Caleb Williams – 6”1 215 pounds - USC
Caleb Williams is the sure-fire thing.
Williams has elite overall arm talent and make pretty much any throw even when off balance – he has a Mahomes vibe to his play. Caleb possesses every intangible to be the franchise elite Quarterback to run this franchise for 10-15 years.
He put up ridiculous numbers in 2022 at USC where he rightfully won the Heisman trophy.
Williams has an almost unique ability to pull off spectacular plays and saves his best for when the chips are down. His play doesn't drop off when under pressure - made an array of quality passes while trying to avoid a heavy pass-rush.
His play is consistently top-notch despite being on a team with serious OL problems and only limited blocking help from backs. Williams is a huge threat with his legs - his play-fakes are outstanding, and he can manipulate safeties with his eyes.
Caleb is a pure athlete, loose-limbed and flexible. Williams has the speed to pick up yardage in scramble situations. Elite accuracy overall, including excellent accuracy on short timing routes to backs and receivers, placing the ball slightly in front to lead receivers to potential yardage after the catch.
Scenario 3 – Stay at pick 3 and select a Quarterback
Drake Maye – 6”4 240 pounds – North Carolina
From a physical standpoint, Maye possesses all the prototypical traits of a modern mobile quarterback. He has elite arm strength and can really drive the ball when he steps into his throws and follows through. Drake Maye can make every NFL throw with ease.
Physically, Maye is a natural athlete who plays with balance and light feet to float in the pocket. He has more than enough speed and athleticism to threaten with his legs when plays break down - scary outside the pocket.
Maye is a tall athlete with the speed and foot quickness to pick up yards on the ground. Maye ran a lot of designed quarterback runs in 2022 and showed the athleticism to be considered a legitimate dual-threat option.
In 2022 North Carolina had one of the worst offensive lines in college football, but he still managed to put up huge numbers despite being under constant pressure.
Maye is a definite hit if you pick him and would be a fantastic signal caller for this franchise moving forward.
Now what would Scott the GM do?
I would make the splash play and trade up to go and get Caleb Williams.
A D.C native and Washington fan, who would come in and become the face of the franchise for years to come.
It isn’t often you are able to be in a position to move up in the draft and solidify the Quarterback position which has plagued this franchise for 20 plus years.
I had real hopes that Sam Howell would be the answer for us at Quarterback, however for several reasons, Sam’s play constant bail out of pockets and poor coaching has meant that it looks like an incoming GM and new coaching staff will want a shiny new toy at the premier position.
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