Get Out and Go Get?

There is a degree of uncertainty about the 2023 season for the Washington Commanders.

The biggest news we await is that of the sale of the team and the revealing of new owners and a new chapter in Franchise history without the energy-depleting drama of a certain Daniel Snyder.

New ownership will leave Head Coach Ron Rivera in a vulnerable position and the team are currently without an OC after Scott Turner was shown the exit door.

What will happen, however, as is the way for all 32 teams in the NFL, is that Washington will both release and acquire veteran football players. Decisions that the Front Office believe will improve the roster and lead to brighter days on the horizon. Various candidates have been interviewed or mentioned for the OC job in D.C; and that hire might go some way as to determining off-season pick-ups and releases.

Recently, against the backdrop of dysfunction and scandal, Washington has not been the preferred destination for high calibre FAs. With the uncertainty around ownership set to linger, this might continue to impact the decision asking of both players and their agents.

Here at UKHTTC, we decided to take our mind off the Eagles appearing in the Superbowl, with some early thoughts on potential cuts and go gets.

First up, we welcome back Joshua Edwards to the blog.

I’ve no professional affiliation with the team, but I still feel bad writing about which guys they might want to consider cutting. Ultimately though this is a business, and the team wants to be in the business of winning, which means tough decisions every off-season. I have gone with just the one cut:

Chase Roullier (Centre) $4.8m in cap savings

This is exclusively about playing time.

I love Chase, a 6th round pick back in 2017 who has played well beyond his draft profile and scouting report. In the past two seasons however, Roullier has missed 23 games. That’s not sustainable at one of the more technically important offensive positions. The team severely missed him this season, with multiple guys struggling in relief. I would look to the position in the draft at a low cost, with a free agency signing for veteran cover.

Two to go Get

My two ‘gets’ look to address immediate roster issues at Linebacker and on the offensive line. PSA: I still want the team to draft in these areas, but they need help from the get-go next year, and rookies take time, people.

Lavonte David (Linebacker) Tampa Bay – projected contract value (SPOTRAC): $9.7m per year

Prettyyyy, prettyyyy, prettyyy good.

I’m quite gun shy on certain positions in free agency, Linebacker being one of them, so I’m going against my instinct here in suggesting the team pursues Lavonte David, currently an unrestricted free agent out of Tampa.

There’s a debate raging in some quarters as to whether David’s best years are behind him, but even if that’s the case, and even if he regresses this coming season, he’d still easily be the best off-ball Linebacker Washington’s had since London Fletcher. Per PFF, David’s 88.5 coverage grade this season ranked second among inside backers, and his 93.0 mark over the past four seasons is numero uno.

A top player with gas left in the tank, and an ideal role model and mentor for Jamin Davis.

Dalton Risner (OG) Denver Broncos – projected contract value (SPOTRAC): $9.5m per year

I’m still miffed that the organisation let a strength of the team devolve into perhaps its biggest weakness. Wentz and Heinicke both struggled behind an ailing offensive line in 2022, which was again beset by frustrating injuries.

Veterans Wes Schweitzer and Trai Turner (another Carolina re-tread) were dreadful in the first part of the season. I’d like the team to look elsewhere to bolster the trenches, and I think Dalton Risner, in Denver, would be a good match.

At 27, Risner is still developing and, other than the season finale, played every snap in 2022 (nearly 1000). An All-American in college, he has prototypical guard size, strength, and length. He’s also likely coming available as the Broncos didn’t pick up his 5th year option as they assess their entire roster in the wake of an incoming head coach. Strike now and get a durable guy with a high ceiling.

And thoughts from UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt

Something I have to get out the way first. It is my opinion that the Commanders should use the 2023 Draft, round by round, on best player available and that is pretty much regardless of positional need. For me, all eyes are on a likely new HC and staff in 2024 and ideally, they should inherit as many good football players as possible.

I do not want the Commanders to zone in on the third or fourth best tackle when they pick at #16, if say elite RB Bijan Robinson is there (unlikely, but you get my drift no doubt).

Back to the discussion points, my cut is a nice guy and no doubt a good locker room presence but in 2022 looked a shadow of his past ‘versions’:

Logan Thomas (TE) $8,675,000 salary $3.5m dead cap

This is an easy decision for me. In simple hard cash terms, Thomas is not worth the $8,675,000 salary in 2023.

Logan will be 32 by the start of the season and that salary figure can be better served elsewhere.

If still on the board, I would be happy with the Commanders adding a potential star rookie TE such as Michael Mayer (at 16) or Luke Musgrave (via a trade down?) in Round 1 and securing the franchise some likely stability at the position for the foreseeable.

And now to the trickier question of FAs. Given that my clear vision for the draft is BPA, free agency will need to address the OL in Washington, so I went Marshmallow Man big.

Orlando Brown Jr. (T) Kansas City Chiefs 5 years $112,146,56 Avg. Salary: $22,429,313 (SPORTRAC)

OK, this is wild, I admit it is wild and it also means absolutely no chance of resigning or franchise tagging DL Daron Payne.

It is also a deal that might sound sweeter for Brown Jr, if Eric Bieniemy, as rumoured, would see an OC job in Washington as a springboard for the bigger prize of HC; and prove he is his own NFL mind beyond the shadow of Chiefs HC Andy Reid.

However, if you have a rookie QB (and the Commanders will almost certainly roll with Sam Howell and his team friendly salary at least for 2023) you have to give him time and keep him upright. A four-time Pro Bowler would help in that regard.

Current average at best LT Charles Leno Jr is only $4.5 dead cap for 2023 and saves $12,445,000.

It seems a lifetime since Washington went supernova in free agency and I am here all day for occasionally throwing the bag and rolling the dice. It is likely only possible with new owners signed, sealed, and delivered at the next NFL owners meeting. As much upfront guaranteed money as possible for years 1 and 2, with a more dead cap friendly get out/restructure by 2025.