Final UKHTTC thoughts leading into the Saints

History 

The all-time record between the teams: The Saints / Commanders rivalry has been played 28 times, with the New Orleans Saints winning 11 games and the Washington Commanders winning 17 games. However, the Saints have won the last three vs Washington.

Look back game: 2017 the then Redskins lost a narrow one by 34-31 after giving up 18 in the fourth quarter and losing to an OT field goal.

Who ran for over 100 yards that day? Samaje Perine.

Who caught a 40-yard Kirk Cousins TD pass that day? Ryan Grant – beloved of former Head Coach Jay Gruden.

Watch out for

Deep threat WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling who has been a good FA pick-up for the Saints. He might not get tons of targets, but Valdes-Scantling can create separation and an open-field – communication in the backfield for the Commanders is essential.

Matchups

It has been a difficult season for the Saints, but a bright spot has been first-round rookie OT Taliese Fuaga who has transitioned with zero issues from RT in College to LT in the NFL.

In a season of mostly positive performances for those in burgundy & gold, the Commanders DE Dorance Armstrong has not really hit the heights and has zero sacks through the last six games. Fuaga has handled well the likes of Parsons and Garrett, but can Armstrong showcase he can be a legitimate Edge threat against a quality LT – especially after a bye week to get rested and healthy.

Maybe an unusual second choice for a match-up, but Saints punter Matthew Hayball has been pro-bowl worthy and accurate in putting into the opponents 20. At times, the Commanders have seemed a little shaky back there receiving punts, so if he is on return duties, a big day for Olamide Zaccheaus to have assured hands.

Keys to win 

Get ahead and be productive early on OFF. The Commanders are better with a healthy Brian Robinson Jnr suiting up and despite the absence of Austin Ekeler, both Chris Rodriquez Jnr and Jeremy McNicol have been a decent supporting cast. Plus do not forget the legs of Jayden Daniels.

Get ahead also means the Saints would have to turn to the pass game and other than the deep threat of Marquez Valdes-Scantling there isn’t too much to worry about, especially if the ball is in the hands of whoever needs to step up: whether that is Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener.

If forced to go pass heavy I can see both of those guys unravelling badly, although Haener is rather an unknown quantity and seemed super confident leading into the game.

The Saints will be handing the ball off to veteran RB Alvin Kamara. Kamara is top 5 league-wide in terms of the number of carries and given the Saints injury problems at WR which include Chris Olave, they’ll turn to Kamara to carry (literally) the load. Discipline from the Washington DL is vital to close up those running lanes: big days needed from the Daron Payne (if good to go!) and Johnny Newton and behind them Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu to wrap up those tackles.

Spotlight players

We are now firmly in the business end of the season and for me that means your star guys have to show up.

The Commanders have not made many splashy signings, but Marshon Lattimore is good to go after his hamstring injury. His presence as a potential near-lockdown corner can be of benefit to the entire DEF and interesting he makes his debut as a Commander vs the Saints. Marshon might well have a point to prove tp his last employer.

In Jayden Daniels Washington have a potential offensive rookie of the year. Each week that is a distance from that rib injury vs the Panthers is a blessing for the burgundy and gold.

I expect Jayden to be humming on Sunday, although he might need to get the likes of Dyami Brown and Luke McCaffrey a bit busier after Noah Brown went on IR. Noah was very much a WR3, but he was good at getting the ball in contested catches and drawing pass interference.

Score prediction

The Saints RB Alvin Kamara is a real threat, but their starting QB is out, and the supporting cast of receivers is average in New Orleans.

Washington get the road win by 35 to 17 with Brian Robinson Jnr having a two TD and 100-yard game.