Final UKHTTC Thoughts: Beat Dallas

History 

The Cowboys / Commanders rivalry has been played 129 times (including 2 postseason games), with the Dallas Cowboys winning 79 games and the Washington Commanders winning 48 games. They have also tied 2 times.

This has been a hugely positive season so far for the Commanders, but the last time out vs Dallas was a surprising defeat at the Northwest Stadium on Week 12. Back-up QB Cooper Rush went for 247 yards and 2 TDs. The Dallas DEF sacked Jayden Daniels four times and although our outstanding rookie connected with Terry McLaurin for a sensational 86-yard TD – Austin Siebert missed the XP, Washington had to then attempt an onside kick which was returned to the house by the Cowboys Juanyeh Thomas.

It has been unsettled at the PK position in Washington, but current incumbent Zane Gonzalez is stating a case to be the starter for 2025 (he is 100% on XPs).

Watch out for

The Cowboys in a poor season might at least have a running back to accompany a healthy Dak Prescott in 2025. Rico Dowdle has over 1000 yards for the season as an aggressive downhill runner.

The Cowboys have a lively punt returner in KaVontae Turpin so special teams guys need to be focused as well.

Matchups

One intriguing match up and one where I feel the Commanders can have some success.

We all know that the Cowboys Micah Parsons can be a real wrecking ball, so this is an intriguing matchup vs our rookie LT.

Can we be 100% certain that the Commanders have the LT position sorted going into the 2025 Draft and/or FA? My guess is yes, we do, with Brandon Coleman currently ranked 5th in terms of all rookies taken at the tackle position (LT and RT) when it comes to pass protection. Coleman has improved throughout the season, and it is more likely that the Commanders look to evaluate the RT position in the offseason than bump Coleman inside.

A match up I like is Zaccheaus vs the Cowboys LB Marist Liufau who can be a tad overaggressive and miss tackles in the open field. Austin Ekeler is out of concussion protocol and might leave a few Cowboys LBs in the dust too.

Keys to win 

OFF

The Cowboys are very poor against the run.

The starting RB in Washington, Brian Robinson Jnr, has been below-par since a 100-yard game vs Tennessee.

A perfect opportunity for B Rob to get right against a Cowboys team for whom several will not even be suiting up for Dallas next season. Robinson Jnr going for 90-120 yards and a TD or two would be a welcome confidence boost heading into the play-offs.

He had a relatively decent showing in terms of receiving reception yards vs Tampa Bay if we do travel to the Buccaneers and the Commanders are a better team with a functioning running game.

DEF

The Cowboys might well start Trey Lance.

Lance came into the NFL with limited College experience, but San Francisco obviously liked the physical traits and upside to take him with the third overall pick in the 2021 draft.

They even traded up to acquire the big-armed QB. However, it has not worked out in the NFL for Trey and for the Commanders forcing Lance to throw from the pocket is likely to result in inaccuracy to a Cowboys receiving group already missed their main guy, CeeDee Lamb.

Spotlight players

Two guys for me that need to find a bit of form and get up to speed.

Midweek, DC Joe Whitt Jnr highlighted that the DL need to get to grips with the opponents run game; so another clear key is to close those running lanes against Rico Dowdle. One of the players mentioned was veteran Jon Allen who has surprisingly returned early given his pectoral tear was not as bad as first thought. Allen is a potential cap casualty in 2025 and needs a big game to give the Commanders FO pause for thought.

As already mentioned, Brian Robinson Jnr needs a game on Sunday. Going for 100 yards and a couple of TDs would be just the momentum for Robinson prior to the play offs.

Score prediction

A divisional game can be a bit of a leveller, but after that drubbing vs the Eagles, this Dallas team are likely checked out for the season.

Ideally, the Commanders can rest starters in the late third quarter onwards and I would expect thst after getting out to a 21-7 lead, the Commanders slow down a little for a 24-14 final score and security of the sixth seed.