Final thoughts leading into the Steelers

History 

The all-time record between the teams: Pittsburgh and the Commanders have faced up 79 times, with the Steelers winning 33 games and the Washington Commanders winning 43 games. They have also tied 3 times.

Last time out: an upset victory for Washington in 2020. The Steelers, led by veteran Ben Roethlisberger, were 11-0 when Washington visited Heinz Field and Pittsburgh also led by 14-0. However, Alex Smith and RB JC McKissic had other ideas and the burgundy and gold outscored the Steelers by 20-3 in the second half for the upset 23-17 win.

Can you recall the TD scorers for Washington that day? RB Peyton Barber went in from the goal line and TE Logan Thomas caught a 15-yard pass from Smith in the end zone.

Matchups

On a broad level: Mike Tomlin vs Kliff Kingsbury is a great match up, one of the best defensive Head Coaches and an OC who has the Commanders averaging 392 yards per game. A real game for the ages.

On the field: CB Joey Porter Jnr vs Terry McLaurin is a mouth-watering clash. Porter Jnr has improved as the season progresses, which is a general theme for the Steelers (see also Najee Smith).

Keys to win 

A key on OFF for me would be for the Commanders to get ahead and thus the Steelers would require Russell Wilson and co to beat them through the air. The Steelers are ranked eighth league wide in rushing yards per game.

They will lean on Najee Harris who has three consecutive games of 100+ yards and is coming off a rested bye week. Always more difficult to hand the ball off to a running back if playing catch up.

Can the Commanders OFF continue to hum against the number two ranked DEF league wide that includes the best pass rusher in the league in TJ Watt? The Steelers are averaging under 16 points allowed per game, but interesting that despite the narrow 20-17 win for Dallas in Week 3, the Cowboys total yards against a supposedly stingy Pittsburgh DEF: 445 yards including 336 through the air.

Dallas also controlled the time of possession too (albeit this was with Fields under centre and Najee Harris not functioning as he has done through the last 3.

Expect OC guru, Kliff Kingsbury to be conjuring up ways to negate the rush of Watt and an interesting nugget that the Steelers also acquired DE Preston Smith who spent four years in Washington after being drafted in the second round of the 2015 draft. We showed last week vs the talented Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns, that this Washington Offense can take away the pass rush; more of the same please.

On DEF, it is a shame that Marshon Lattimore is not yet fit as this would have been the perfect game whereby his skillset allowed the Commanders DL that half a second of decision making to get home.

The Pittsburgh OL isn’t so great with Broderick Jones less comfortable at RT than LT). DTs Daron Payne and Phil Mathis/Johnny Newton vs a rookie Centre in Zach Frazier is also intriguing from a Commanders point of view: can Washington get some push on the Pittsburgh OL?

Spotlight players

Last minute spotlight player has to be Zane Gonzalez given the injury to placekicker Austin Siebert.

Zane last suited up in 2021 and he had a good season for the Carolina Panthers that year (10-10 in the 40-49 range). A worry to have not played in a while, let’s see how this pans out and, like Siebert, he is not a long-range kicker, so you might well see the Commanders going for it on fourth down.

Maybe a surprise here to choose spotlight players for one of the less headline grabbing parts of the game, but when facing a stud pass rusher, it is important that your RBs and WRs are happy to chip & block. The likes of Luke McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Noah Brown seem to relish in that capacity and have big roles to play on Sunday.

On DEF, would it not be nice to witness a dominant Daron Payne performance?  That 2022 11.5 sack season now seems a huge outlier in that regard, and might we have to accept that Daron, whilst no doubt able to present pressure on a QB, is not a stud in the National Football League? Would love to be proved wrong.

Score prediction

Gone are the days when we overthink the talent of the opponent. Washington are legitimate under Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury.

Terry has another 2TD day at the Northwest stadium, getting the better of Porter Jnr, and the Commanders score 28 points to the Steelers 17.