Final thoughts leading into the Bears

History

The Washington Commanders lead the all-time series with 27 wins to the Bears 25. There has been a tie too.

Looking back to the last time out in 2023 vs Chicago and the Bears put up 40 with WR DJ Moore absolutely embarrassing the Commanders secondary: Moore gained 230 yards and three touchdowns on eight receptions. Ouch.

Crazy start here from that game: Sam Howell went for 388 yards throwing 51 times (albeit the Commanders were always chasing): a mad year under hapless OC Eric Bieniemy. Washington scored just 20 that day and will keen to showcase just how far we have come under HC Dan Quinn and OC Kliff Kingsbury and his staff.

Keys to win

Leading into this I was thinking how the Bears passed on the hire of Kliff Kingsbury as OC in Chicago.

Kingsbury is a certified OC geek, and I think this one will mean that much more to him. I can imagine Kingsbury immersed in the playbook and even if Daniels is ruled out, that will just have likely fired up Kliff even more to prove he can win against an above-average team with his second-string QB.

Offense

Firstly, come out strong and put up points in the first quarter, Washington has been pretty good in this department. Especially if Mariota starts, it would not be great to be chasing and getting pass happy.

For the last UKHTTC blog we spoke to the Irish Bears Show and they indicated that whilst the Bears DEF has been stingy and has not allowed more than 21 points in 12 straight games, there is the opportunity to hurt Chicago with WR slants.

That is certainly part of the Kingsbury scheme, and it could be a go-to day for the likes of Noah Brown, Terry McLaurin and even the oft-open Luke McCaffrey. The Bears have allowed only 10 TDs in 2024 compared to the Commanders 18 allowed, but they will be missing some key starting pieces: Safety Jaquan Brisker and Nickel Kyler Gordon in the backfield.

Defense

Contain star rookie QB Caleb Williams who has shown how dangerous he can be in extending plays and has a high calibre supporting cast to throw the ball to.

He isn’t the quickest though and, so far, more of an intermediate thrower. Expect the likes of Jeremy Chinn to be near the line of scrimmage and putting the hits in on TE Cole Kmet and co.

A takeaway or 3 could be a major key to victory here: they Commanders do have talent in the backfield, despite some wobbles and Sunday would be a good time to demonstrate improvements in communication and, as Dan Quinn likes to rightfully preach, to play fast to the football.

Spotlight players

Although I have highlighted the WR slants and potential there, I feel the Commanders are always better when Brian Robinson Jnr is involved. And even more so if Mariota starts under centre.

It is unlikely to be a match-up whereby Robinson gets huge yardage (the Bears are not Carolina) but it is vital to keep both Robinson and Ekeler involved – which I am sure Kingsbury will. Even 3 and 4 yardage gains will prove invaluable in what might be a lower scoring game than recent weeks.

In what might be a low scoring affair, placekicker Austin Siebert might also have a key contribution to make.

I love signs of week-to-week growth for this Dan Quinn-led roster.

Spotlight players on the DEF side of the ball for me this week are the cornerbacks Mike Sainristil and Benjamin St Juste will come up against quality receivers in DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.

Mike is already showing the leadership and intensity from his Michigan days, despite likely being more of a Nickel guy he has stood up OK at RCB. St Juste too often has flattered to deceive and DJ Moore might again take advantage of his average at best coverage skills.

St-Juste played well against Diontae Johnson, but Carolina are just so bad I am not sure that is an indication of an improved St Juste, and we might well be letting him see what Benjamins he can get elsewhere in the NFL end-season.

Also intrigued if we see Frankie Luvu off the edge on certain plays too.

Predictions

If Mariota starts there is justified confidence that the Commanders can stay competitive, although I do have doubts that he won’t turn the ball over.

Daniels vs Williams would really be some game and it would be great if Jayden really was ready and cleared to go.

I predict a narrow loss if Mariota is under centre (21-14), but a narrow win if Jayden plays (24-21)