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With the US midterms looming, we thought here at UKHTTC it was the perfect time to take stock of the Commanders 2022 performance as we enter the halfway point of the NFL season.
Who has been the MVP, who might have surprised or disappointed the burgundy & gold fanbase over the first 8?
Opinion was gathered from these shores via regular UKHTTC contributors Joshua Edwards and Tony Wheat (Full Press Commanders) along with the UKHTTC founder Christian Burt. We also got as sprinkle of USA thoughts from the effervescent Big Doug from the Big Douglas Show.
First up, it is Tony Wheat of Full Press Commanders.
My Commanders MVP through the first eight games is DE Jon Allen who has had a very productive first half of 2022 following on from his Pro Bowl campaign in 2021.
Despite regular double teams Allen is collapsing pockets, pressuring QB’s and stuffing runs on a consistent basis. He has 3.5 sacks, an interception, a forced fumble and 22 solo tackles which is on pace for his best single season ever. In addition to the measurables, by occupying blockers he is creating opportunities for others and his leadership, maturity and focus are critical to the team.
Two pleasant surprises
The first would definitely be Darrick Forrest.
He’s currently PFF’s 4th ranked safety with an overall grade of 82.1 and whether you’re a fan of PFF or not it’s hard not to argue that Forrest has made a considerable impression so far.
From Week 1 where he flew around the field putting in big hits and clinched the game with a late interception to the development of a potentially formidable pairing with PFF’s number 1 ranked Safety, Kam Curl (this could be a joint award!), it’s clear that Darrick has taken a huge leap in year 2. His coverage and game awareness needs to improve but he’s made an excellent start to his career in his first proper season.
I also considered LB Jamin Davis here, who has gradually improved as the season has progressed and is now beginning to justify the investment made in him, but I decided to go for an offensive player for balance.
Most people had written off Curtis Samuel before the season. He was a punchline following last season’s injury struggles and many people had given up after more doubts emerged about his health during off season workouts and training camp.
However, Samuel has played every game so far and has been pretty good. With 42 receptions for 390 yards and 2 TD’s and 17 carries for 106 yards he has been a bright spot in a largely disappointing offense.
His ability to line up across the formation and in the backfield keeps defenses guessing and gives Scott Turner a Swiss Army knife player who arguably should be being used even more.
Two guys who have been below par
Thankfully he’s now been traded, but William Jackson III has been a serious disappointment.
He never seemed to be a fit in Washington’s zone heavy scheme, with few chances to operate in man coverage where he was known to be more effective.
He seemed lost at times with the communication and spatial awareness that are both required to be an effective zone corner. In the end his confidence seemed totally drained and the Defense seems to have improved markedly since his removal from the action a few games ago.
Sad to say but after a reasonably bright start, Carson Wentz has disappointed.
The offense has seemed to be stuck in 1st gear for large parts of games and although not all the blame rest on Wentz (the offensive line has struggled mightily at times) he still seems to be unable to make the most of the undoubted talents of the likes of Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. His decision making has been spotty and his old faults of holding the ball too long and poor decision making remain. It will be interesting to see what happens when he returns from IR in a couple of weeks.
Heinicke isn’t the long-term answer but neither it seems is Wentz and it appears likely that the team will cut bait at the end of the season, saving over $26 million in cap space in the process.
In terms of a final record, I’d say 8-9 could be on the cards with wins over the Texans, Falcons, Giants and Browns. Who knows though with this team. We might not win another game, or we could win 6! Let’s just hope the news about a potential Snyder sale is true and then we can all smile again!
Next up, we welcome the contribution of Joshua Edwards.
It’s a second vote for Washington MVP for Jon Allen.
What more can you say about this guy? Leader, disrupter, consummate pro. Through 8 games he's notched 32 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 9 TFLs, 1 pick and 1 forced fumble. It sure helps having Daron Payne putting in a career year next to him, but Allen is a special player and deserving of the mid-season MVP.
Two pleasant surprises
Kamren Curl, first off, who PFF have as the highest rated safety in the league. I loved Curl's ascension to our best piece in the secondary but he's my biggest, pleasant surprise because I never thought his ceiling was this high.
Second choice for me is Cornelius Lucas at Right Tackle has been a real revelation since coming in for the injured Sam Cosmi, so much so that Cosmi likely slots in at guard when he comes back.
Lucas is particularly impressive in the run game, with an 84%-win rate ranking 1st among starting tackles. It's another example of injuries forcing coaches hands, but props to Lucas for taking his chance.
Two in the disappointing category
The two let downs: Carson Wentz, who is a shadow of his former self and seems to have lost all vestiges of what made him a one-time MVP candidate. He lacks mobility, feel in the pocket, and is plagued by bad decision making.
His arm is legit, but not much else is. The injury has galvanized the offense behind the legs of Taylor Heinicke. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see Wentz under centre again.
In addition to Wentz, it has to be William Jackson III, who was traded on deadline day to Pittsburgh.
The trade is not much cop, a swap of late rounders and some cap savings for Washington. Jackson, a man corner asked to adapt to a mixed-coverage scheme with more zone responsibilities, failed. That's on the coaches and on him.
It was disappointing that he couldn't put it together this year. Ultimately, he was outplayed by the free agent Rachad Wildgoose.
Final regular season prediction: I don't usually play the schedule game, as it's such a week-to-week proposition, but I've had a go tonight. I think Washington can win another 4 games, maybe 5 at a push. Why not be optimistic, on a day where, supposedly, Dan Snyder has hired Bank of America to help him sell the team?
Let's go 9-8 and the third wildcard spot in the NFC.
Bringing up the final UK opinion, it’s UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt.
To go outside of any player who belongs to the rapidly improving DEF unit is perhaps being a bit contrary for the sheer hell of it. But for me the Commanders MVP through 8 is the current face of all that is good on the field in burgundy & gold: Scary Terry McLaurin.
There has been absolutely zero downturn in performance since Terry signed a three-year contract extension worth $71 million in the off-season. If anything, #17 has been even more clutch, displaying a skillset that almost merges the hard nose WR play of Pierre Garçon, with the quickness of a DeSean Jackson.
The contested “Randy Moss style” catch vs the Colts, to set up the Heinicke TD, was simply incredible.
Am I being swayed by the win last Sunday? Yes, of course, but Terry still deserves all the accolades that come his way.
Two welcome surprises
OK, he might not be my most favoured guy in the building, but there is little doubt that the Washington DEF is being well drilled under DC Jack Del Rio.
The FA addition in 2021 of William Jackson III has been a near bust, but at least the coaching staff showed the admittance this it simply wasn’t working to plug a man coverage CB into a team that plays zone.
There are numerous young players on the defensive side of the roster, Kam Curl, Benjamin St-Juste for example, and Del Rio has also been getting the best out of the more rotational guys.
The sneaky good pick up of DT John Ridgeway, who was claimed off waivers by the Commanders from the Dallas Cowboys in September is a great example. Displaying NT size and some ability to come off blocks, you can never underestimate the importance of those who suit up on a rotational basis on game day.
My second welcome surprise through the first half of the season has been the ability of Taylor Heinicke to step in and take the team to three straight victories and back to a .500 record.
Being honest, when it was reported that starting QB Carson Wentz (more on him below!) required surgery for a right finger fracture I was not overly bothered by his absence knowing that a combination of a static QB and shaky OL was severely limiting the receiving weapons in D.C.
My excitement for the return of Heinicke, however, was being tempered with legitimate questions around his arm and, perhaps more importantly, that the league might have figured out the limitations of the gutsy Old Dominion graduate.
The arm strength issues will not magically go away, they will remain for as long as Taylor is in the NFL.
But who can’t admire the way #4 scrambles and the genuine number of exciting plays we have seen in burgundy & gold from Heinicke? His teammates love him, I love him and if you don’t love him then you likely don’t enjoy Christmas, puppy dogs and kittens.
Who has been disappointing?
In big capital letters – CARSON WENTZ.
For HC Ron Rivera, there was genuine excitement about the $28m dollar trade recruit in the off-season. That price now seems ridiculous for a once upon a time dual threat QB, who now looks shaken in the pocket and with limited ability to make plays with his legs. Wentz has struggled to pick up the Scott Turner system and it would seem likely that Washington will move on after this season.
I should say, however, that Carson has not been a locker room disappointment and seems genuinely admired by the other guys on the roster. The only way back for Wentz would be an injury to Heinicke and with the caveat that the Commanders would still be in a position to make a wild card spot.
If Taylor does go down and Washington are out of post-season contention, it will be more likely the coaches will want to see rookie Sam Howell under centre.
Next up are a duo that to be fair, did play well vs Indy last Sunday.
That does not mean we can allow the overall miserable play of Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner to be ignored.
Both guards have looked like their best years are behind them and have left HC Rivera under scrutiny for going back to the Carolina Panthers Well too many times. There has been some recent improvement for the nine-year NFL veterans, perhaps there is hope that they will elevate to average blocking as we enter the second half of the 2022 season.
Final Record?
The NFL is notoriously difficult to predict. If the Commanders can bring some injured guys back (Logan Thomas has played only half the games and there is the high-profile return of Chase Young to come) there is no reason they cannot continue to be competitive. Of the four divisional games left, they’ll need to knock off two wins from those.
This Sunday vs the Vikings will be a real litmus test; a win and I think the Commanders will take at least another four and finish 9-8.
Rounding off the Midterms piece is Big Doug from the Big Douglas Show.
MVP through 8 games
To me this is actually Jack Del Rio.
I had Sam Fortier on who covers the team for the Washington Post on my Podcast the Big Douglas Show, and he talked about Del Rio and how he admitted that the Defense needed to be adjusted to the personnel.
With one of the best front four's in football del Rio has been able to do what every defensive coordinator dreams of, rushing the passer and being effective at rushing the passer while only sending 4 at the quarterback.
This allows him to drop 7 into coverage It's why you generally see a 4th DB and only 2 line backers on the field most of the time in fact when Cole Holcomb was hurt in Week 7 it was Davis as the only LB on the field most of the game.
Two players who have impressed
I mentioned the DL earlier and all of the big 3 could be on here as well as Jamin Davis
My first choice is Kamren Curl.
The difference is palpable when Kam is out. In fact, when Holcomb was out in week 7 it was Curl who wore the green dot on his helmet signifying that he was the guy receiving plays and disseminating it to the other 10 men on the Defense. His 84.5 PFF grade is the highest of any safety in the NFL and they use him as a true Swiss Army knife
My second impressive Commander is WR Curtis Samuel.
Talking about Swiss army knives, Samuel has rushed for 106 yds & 42 receptions totalling 390 yds. OC Scott Turner has moved him all over the field creating match-up nightmares for opposing Coordinators. It's becoming easy to see why they prioritized obtaining him in FA.
Now to some I've been less thrilled with
Bobby McCain: Another free agent pick-up from 2020.
In Miami he was used mostly as a slot defender while also rotating him into both S positions, I'm sure it's his position Flex that caught Rivera's eye. However, they primarily play him at FS & with the emergence of Darrick Forrest it's becoming harder to see him on the roster next season
Ron Rivera the GM: there is currently only 1 man in the league with more control over his respective team than Ron and it's the guy called Belichick with all the rings up in Foxborough.
William Jackson III, Benjamin St Juste and Jamin Davis are all players signed or drafted and then played out of position.
Ron jettisoned Flowers who played well for the WFT last season but was replaced with former Panther Norwell, the OL is just as much continuity as it is talent. This says nothing of Rivera's inability to acquire a starting level QB in the 3 years he's been the head man in Washington.
What should we expect for the rest of the season?
Vikings, Eagles & 49ers are the toughest remaining foes while the Falcons and the Texans are seemingly the easiest. With 4 division games left anything is possible. Rivera's teams are known for starting slow & then go on a run. Can they do it again?
Sunday will be a true test against a team that currently sits at 2nd in the conference only behind Philly. I still think this team could end up at .500 but as they say, let's take it one game at a time.
HAIL!
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