Commanders 2022: Two up, two down?

With a new name and new QB in town, the Washington Commanders will enter the new NFL season with a schedule that, at least on paper, seems less daunting than that of 2021.

The team contains little in the way of overpaid/washed out personnel, which made the latest feature a difficult one as the UKHTTC gang discuss guys who will ascend in 2022 and those who might see their stock dwindle.

We welcomed back Joshua Edwards to the blog and are delighted that high-profile Washington fan, Colin Dunphy, made his UKHTTC debut to offer thoughts alongside UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt plus regular contributors Tony Wheat of Full Press Commanders and UK fan Scott Hartley.

First up, Joshua on who might be stock up in 2022.

Kam Curl (S)

Landon Collins is still without a team, and I wouldn't begrudge a return if the contract was in the right ballpark, but I doubt Collins would take such a hefty pay cut (again) and return to Washington.

If he goes elsewhere, he can at least spin the decision as about 'culture' or 'fit'. I think his departure is a good thing for Kam Curl, who has already proven himself a steal of a 7th round draft pick and consistent three down safety.

His best work has been in the box, but he's versatile enough to play across the formation in all defensive packages, whether as the Buffalo Nickel (*drink*) or a more traditional strong safety.

The secondary has not been good, and Del Rio knows it. I'm of the opinion that with no Collins on the scene, Kurl can ascend again and drag the back end along with him this season, which will be a big part of the defensive resurgence I am predicting.

Dyami Brown (WR)

I was not ready to give up on Brown last season.

No, he isn't Terry McLaurin, a third-round pick who proved very quickly that he belonged in the NFL at borderline elite level. But he has speed and flashed a bigger than anticipated catch radius on occasion in 2021.

He was electric at NC State (it's nice that the team drafted Sam Howell) and it's been heavily reported that they (and so do I) have every faith that with a QB with a better arm, he can flourish.

Wentz throws a beautiful deep ball. With the potential for Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, JD McKissic, and Dyami Brown all on the field at the same time, Brown has an excellent chance to draw single coverage as the perceived least threatening target.

Last year he posted a meagre 12 receptions for 165 yards (albeit with an impressive 13.8ypc. My #boldprediction for this coming season is that Brown eclipses that yardage total, at some point, in one game. That's how bullish I am on him. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

Who might disappoint a little?

Antonio Gibson (RB)

Not many teams roll with a feature back these days, and unless you have Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry, it's easy to see why: versatility, keeping guys fresh, and keeping defenses guessing; all are highly prized facets of modern NFL offenses.

So, when the Commanders drafted running back Brian Robinson JR out of Alabama in the third round, to some fan consternation, it didn't surprise me. Let me caveat this before going any further: I love Gibson.

His transformation from wide receiver/gadget player at Memphis to dyed in the wool back in the NFL has been remarkable, so all power to him.

He has home run potential every time he touches the ball. But regrettably, he has a fumbling issue, is oft hurt, and lacks that innate running back vision which is so integral to the zone run scheme that Scott Turner loves to run out of shotgun.

The latter is not a knock-on Gibson, so to speak - he wasn't a running back in college - but it does limit him, especially in short yardage.

I can see Robinson taking on a far bigger role than Jonathan Williams or Peyton Barber have had on this team in recent seasons, and that will naturally stunt Gibson's ability to be impactful. If he can't fix his fumbling issues, he may be resigned to an increasingly lessened role in this offense.

Cole Holcomb (LB)

Again, a player I like a great deal. This is less about a lack of faith in Cole's ability, and more about the decision by Rivera and Del Rio to have him play the MIKE Linebacker role, which they have all but confirmed in recent press conferences.

Jamin Davis, whom they drafted in the first-round last year to fill the MIKE position, can't play it. This is, ladies and gents, the definition of a bust. They mucked up and couldn't address the slot in free agency (which isn't surprising - good MIKE Linebackers are not in the habit of being let go by teams), and now they're slotting Holcomb in there.

Square pegs in round holes has been a depressing trend which has spanned multiple coaching staffs in Washington, especially on Defense. This is another decision that, ironically, fits neatly in that bracket.

Holcomb's strengths are speed, decisiveness, and his ability to get sideline to sideline. Give him the responsibilities that come with calling the Defense and you mitigate his strengths and exacerbate his weaknesses. He'll probably lead the team in tackles, but that doesn't mean it will have been a successful season. I am concerned.

Next up, UKHTTC founder, Christian Burt and two guys he feel will elevate

Carson Wentz (QB)

For Head Coach Ron Rivera, this third year will be pivotal, with on-field success, or not, likely to be determined by the play of Carson Wentz. The former Eagles and Colts QB has a huge point to prove in 2022 and is by far the best cannon arm QB that Washington have had in some time.

In fact, it might not be an over exaggeration to suggest Carson might have the best arm in Washington NFL history and is certainly the most talented QB to suit up in D.C since Kirk Cousins.

No matter the media spin, I remain convinced that Indianapolis owner Jim Irsay made a rushed & rash decision to run Wentz out of town following the Colts limp end to 2021 with that play-off ending defeat to Jacksonville. It’s the NFL, and on Any Given Sunday, something can go dramatically right or fatefully wrong.

Last year, many were heralding the arrival in Washington of the gun-slinging journeyman, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Carson is a major upgrade from both Fitzpatrick and Taylor Heinicke and will have a variety of receiving weapons at his disposal. It feels rather now or never for both Head Coach and QB, and I am putting my chips on a productive season and play-off spot as Carson has the ability to elevate this entire roster.

I’m also excited to see extended contract OC Scott Turner open up the play book with the hotter armed Wentz and thought it was a sneaky good pick up to draft Brian Robinson Jnr from Alabama as a safe handed physical RB to complement the more dynamic weapons in D.C.

Sam Cosmi (RT)

Maybe a risky choice, here. Second year tackle, Sam Cosmi will not have the experienced RG Brandon Scherff suiting up alongside him along the line.

But: Sam is 6ft6, 314 pounds and displays a nastiness and athleticism to his game that will justify being taken with the 51st pick in 2021. Cosmi, as with all the line guys in Washington, will also benefit from the high-quality coaching of John Matsko.

He will have learned well from his year one of NFL experience and will make significant strides in both fitness and knowledge of the game to do battle with a number of decent off the edge guys in the NFC East.

But who might dip a little in 2022?

Joey Slye (K)

Joey stuck in D.C as the last of the carousel of kickers when Washington were rash, in my opinion, to cut the talented Dustin Hopkins, who is now with the LA Chargers on a multi-year contract.

Did he perform well in burgundy and gold; yes, he did indeed with 12/12 FG attempts and only one missed XP. But we can still look to a rather middling kicker stats wise overall in Joey’s NFL career and say it is not a reach to suggest that the % success is very likely to drop in 2022.

Rivera will point towards the leg strength for those long yardage field goals, but for me, with better potential overall offensive play, Washington might be looking at accuracy over shorter FG distances and it will be interesting to see how Slye will perform with the increased pressure as the Week 1-17 starter.

Taylor Heinicke (QB)

OK, I chickened out a bit with this one, as this is very much a projected worst-case scenario in the sense of “what happens if Wentz went down injured on the cursed FedEx turf”.

Taylor Heinicke does have a bit of Mojo about him and can be elusive in the pocket too. But he sails the football high with too many of his passes, makes oft rash decisions and I would be amazed to see him come in and perform to the level of that four-game win streak in 2021.

For me, Taylor is a situational back up QB rather than a season long back up QB. If down by a score in the 3rd or 4th he might be The Guy on a Sunday afternoon. But as a long-term solid back-up to an NFL starter, I am less than convinced and was surprised Washington didn’t look at a better veteran option (perhaps money talked there) at QB2.

And now, we welcome one of my fav Washington guys on Twitter, Colin Dunphy who took this discussion to Twitter Spaces. Colin is always great in the various Commanders Spaces discussions and is also a great go-to for up-to-date salary cap insight.

Here is Colin, with a summary of the Spaces discussion.

If I learned anything from dabbling in gambling last year, it's there is wisdom in the masses.

The more people bet on a line, the more accurate the line becomes. So, when faced with this honourable challenge, I requested the help of the “Command Post Twitter space with CJ, Dan, Mayo, Darrin, and Arch.”

Here is the crowd-sourced summary of 12 thoughtfully submitted responses from the group on 5/25/22.

First up for exceeding expectations is Curtis Samuel (WR) with three votes. He is flying under the radar for many due to not making an impact last year, so he’s a great choice to surprise. Next is Jamin Davis.

The former first-round pick started last year with high expectations but took a step back during the year. Now that he will be playing in a more natural position, the group was more hopeful, giving him two votes, which tied with Benjamin St. Juste.

The tiebreaker was settled by a Twitter poll giving Davis the decisive advantage (71%).

For players that might take a step back, Logan Thomas (TE) was the first choice with three votes. Most concerns were regarding his ability to return from his injury early and effectively this season.

A shrewd choice by the group.

Finally, Bobby McCain (S) also got three votes. There were some lingering performance concerns mixed with hope that fourth-round safety Percy Butler can make an immediate contribution.

Of course, no one wished bad luck on McCain, or anyone else, but it was lots of fun discussing this list.

Next up Scott Hartley with his two guys who will elevate in 2022.

Jamin Davis (LB)

Jamin had what can be described as inconclusive, rookie year with the 2021 19th overall pick finding his feet from the transition to the NFL from the College game. The questions are out there as to whether he should have been selected so highly.

A big sophomore year is needed from number #52 and hopefully a change to the outside Line-backer will shows the team and fans that he was worthy of that first round selection.

Chase Young (DE)

#99 needs to come out all guns blazing this season to go back to his rookie season form.

We all believe in the former Defensive Rookie of the Year, but the rest of the league needs to be put on notice to prove that Chase is the elite pass rusher we all believe he is.

And who might disappoint a little.

Bobby McCain (S)

With the draft accusation of the 4th round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft Percy Butler and an expectation of Butler to play the Buffalo Nickle role, Bobby McCain could see his role diminish through the 2022 season.

A "Steady Eddie" Free Safety who came in as a reliable free agent in 2021 hasn’t let anyone down, but it looks like the organisation could be forming plans to move on from McCain and it will be interesting to see the camp battle between those guys.

Daron Payne (DT)

A limbo year looks set to take place for our former Alabama First round draft selection from the 2018 NFL Draft. Payne has been a productive Defensive Tackle for the Commanders, but now it is clear for all to see that Payne, will be on another roster in 2023.

The 3rd round selection of Phidarian Mathis in the 2022 NFL Draft sealed the deal that Payne will be elsewhere at the end of this campaign.

From all the Commanders fans point of view we hope he has a fantastic season showing other teams the talent he has.

And finally, we welcome back Tony Wheat of Full Press Commanders, starting with two trending up.

Curtis Samuel

Everyone was understandably frustrated by Curtis Samuel’s situation last year.

I’m not sure people would be so down on him if he tore his ACL in week 1 last season, but because he was never fully ruled out, but never really contributed, many people seem to be holding that against him and writing him off already.

Early reports from OTA’s have been extremely positive, and Samuel seems to be moving completely uninhibited. The coaches have been very positive about his health and his likely impact, so he could be set to bounce back in a big way this season.

Clearly it is early days, but the installation of the offense begins in OTA’s and reportedly at Tuesday’s session, Samuel was being utilised in a range of ways including on jet sweeps, lining up in the backfield and also in the slot.

If he can get anywhere close to the 850+ yards receiving and over 200 yards rushing that he has in Carolina in 2020, it will be a massive boost to the offense.

The opportunity is likely to be there as Terry McLaurin will undoubtedly attract the focus of defenses, and the addition of Jahan Dotson should ensure that the Commanders have a significant upgrade in potential weapons, especially if Carson Wentz can play somewhere even close to his best.

Kam Curl

Kam Curl has already risen and exceeded expectations since being drafted in the 7th round in 2020.

With the exit of Landon Collins, Curl may now enjoy even great opportunities and responsibilities in Jack Del Rio’s Defense.

Curl’s versatility has been on display throughout the first 2 years of his career, and he has succeeded in a way that not many would have predicted. Drafted as a strong safety, Curl also excelled in the ‘big nickel’ sub package and his range means he has also featured as a slot corner.

Assuming Collins doesn’t re-sign on a cheaper deal, Curl will have the opportunity to grow and develop further, whether it as at strong safety, ‘big nickel’ or if he is used in a range of ways, which his skill set certainly allows him to do.

Reports from OTA’s have indicated that Curl is becoming more vocal and looks to be growing into a leadership role on the team. I expect him to become a Pro Bowl level player this season.

And two guys who might project down in ’22.

Logan Thomas

As much as I love Logan Thomas, he is returning form an ACL tear, and may not be back in action until after the first month of the season.

It is not guaranteed that Thomas will be able to jump back in at the level he was before, where he was a key weapon and a red zone menace.

He’s also turning 31 in July and although age isn’t as much of a barrier as it once was, the cards are stacked against him being as good as he was pre-ACL.

Additionally, with the addition of Jahan Dotson and the return to health of Curtis Samuel, combined with the drafting of Brian Robinson and the retention of JD McKissic, there may not be as many balls to go around.

Having said that, Carson Wentz loved Zac Ertz, but Thomas isn’t on the level that Ertz was in that 2017-19 period. Cole Turner has also been drafted in the 5th round this year, and although rookie TE’s don’t tend to produce, Turner may have the opportunity in training camp to get some reps in Thomas’s absence, and the coaches are very high on the former Nevada prospect.

Antonio Gibson

I’m reaching a little here, and I’m slightly loathed to make this pick as I like Gibson and I know the coaches loved the way he finished last season.

He’s reportedly looking great having bulked up his lower body over the off season, but it’ll be interesting to see if his role changes after the drafting of Brian Robinson and the re-signing of JD McKissic.

• Could he give up some of his primary role as the teams 1st and 2nd down back to Robinson?

• Will he now not get as many looks on 3rd down as he would have got had McKissic left?

• Will Curtis Samuel get some carries?

All of these questions potentially may mean that Gibson does not see as much time on the field, although we clearly will not know this until the start of the season.

He played hurt for most of last season and in some ways, having a rotational role may bring out the best in him, but there are enough breadcrumbs in the teams moves to suggest he may be on a slightly downward arc.