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So then, we are halfway there in the 2023 NFL season. Are the Commanders living on no more than a prayer for the play-offs?
With a current 4-5 record, but a tough run-in, the odds are likely stacked against any post-season appearance.
However, could the win against the New England Patriots be a springboard in becoming a Wild Card play-off team? Here at UKHTTC, founder Christian Burt and regular contributor Simon Thurston recap the first half (and a bit) of the 2023 season and are also joined by Scott Hartley of the One Point Safety Show.
The trio discuss the QB play, welcome surprises, disappointments and predict the final record after 17.
First up, Simon.
Thoughts on the QB play in ‘23?
Last month, I commented on how I was "pretty pleased with what is the infancy of Sam Howell's career as Washington's starting QB."
Four (or so) weeks on, and I'm more than pretty pleased. I also realise it is early days and Howell has a way to go in his development. However, here are some stats that I find intriguing:
At the time of writing, Sam has more completions (235) than any other QB in the NFL. With 2,471 passing yards, he is second only to Miami's Tua Tagovailoa.
Howell is seventh in the league in touchdown passes (with 14), ahead of Herbert, Prescott, Burrow, Purdy, and Lamar Jackson, to name a few.
For someone so inexperienced and who's had a torrid time on occasions behind a porous O-line, those are impressive numbers.
What's been the most welcome surprise in 23 so far?
Without wanting to sound like a Sam Howells' fan boy, I have to go with #14's play.
Despite some below average play from his O-line, he's stood in the pocket bravely and still delivered some incredible passes that Washington fans haven't seen since the days of Kirk Cousins and RGIII.
His pocket awareness appears to have improved over the past two or three weeks, too, which (I hope) shows signs of his understanding of the position and his development as a player.
And as a result, he's taken less sacks, scrambled more effectively, and demonstrated quicker release in short and intermediate passes. Oh, and he's still on pace to throw for over 4,500 yards this season.
Biggest disappointment after 9 games?
The Defense.
A unit which, under DC Jack Del Rio, has traditionally started sluggishly and then improved as the season has progressed. Clearly, the trades of both Sweat and Young will have an impact. But it may not be as negative as many fans would have you believe. There are hungry, energetic, and talented youngsters on this roster, all with a point to prove.
That said, to make any run at that seventh spot in the NFC playoff race, Washington will need a repeat of 2020 and 2022, where the Defense produced league-leading output in almost every category in the second half of both seasons. Can they do that, with the omission of their two prized edge rushers? Time will tell.
Currently, the stats are particularly telling. Last in total yards allowed, 28th in yards per game, 31st in points allowed. Their 13 turnovers created has them in the middle of the pack. But they've given up too many explosive plays and often wilted on 3rd and long, with a chance to get the offense back on the field.
Final record after 17
Unless the Defense can make the improvements, it needs to, I still see Washington sat by a nice cosy fire watching football in January.
Basing their final record on what we've seen to date, I feel they can win 6 or 7 games in total. However, if the Defense can right the ship, there may be a surprise in store. Whichever it is, it's unlikely to be dull.
Next up, UKHTTC founder, Christian.
Thoughts on the QB play in ‘23?
Back when Eric Bieniemy was hired in February 2023, HC Ron Rivera was quoted as saying “I wanted a change because I wanted to see us do something different”.
And, whether you are a Rivera fan or not, it most certainly has been different: the introduction of the Bieniemy version of the West Coast offense in Washington is/has taking/taken some time, with the new learning on the broad shoulders of a 2022 fifth round draft pick out of North Carolina.
The QB1 in Washington, Sam Howell, has produced some absolute dimes over the first nine and has also demonstrated clear and obvious developmental progress since Week 1.
Has it all been perfect? No.
As with any full first year as a QB in the NFL, there have been problems in getting up to speed with the required internal clock in the uncompromising NFL, with a sack count that at one point was heading northwards at an unwanted record level.
However, the game and opposition DEF does seem to be slowing down nicely for Howell; he is checking down when a play isn’t there, the ball is coming out both accurately and on time and he has also flashed some of that scramble ability that was there in his College game.
So, my thoughts on the QB play in 2023? At last, Washington have an OFF blueprint for the future, with a young QB and receiving core getting to grips with a complicated system that might well start to reap scoring rewards. The Washington Commanders scored an average of 18.9 points per game in 2022, in 2023 this is up to 23.4.
It is due diligence to make a full assessment after 17 regular games, that is entirely wise. But I believe there is a good chance that Bieniemy and Howell might be the right duo for some time to come in D.C.
What's been the most welcome surprise in 23 so far?
The most obvious answer is Sam Howell for all the points made already by Simon.
But another nice story has been the FA pick-up of return guy Jamison Crowder.
The former Redskin departed in 2019 when he penned three-year, $28.5 million contract with the New York Jets. Crowder was an outstanding slot guy for the burgundy & gold and a vital cog alongside the more revered WRs DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garçon.
It has been refreshing and, somewhat nostalgic return, to see Crowder suiting up as a Commander and his Week 6 64-yard return vs Atlanta was a season highlight. I would not be surprised if Crowder breaks out another long return and/or receives further receptions as the season goes on.
To coin a phrase from a past Washington GM, Jamison Crowder is a football player.
Biggest disappointment after 9 games?
It cannot be anything other than organisational failure, and therefore an organisational disappointment, to trade a number 2 pick out of the Capitol before his contract even reached an expiry date.
All signs in 2023 point to a Chase Young/Commanders marriage that was not made in heaven and there are echoes of the Robert Griffin III pick in that a certain face of the franchise has instead departed with a degree of animosity.
As mentioned in a past UKHTTC blog on the Chase and Montez Sweat exits: Washington might, at last, have begun the long overdue process of hiring smarter guys in the building. Chicago are paying Sweat a huge salary at a rate of a game wrecker, but for me, Montez is not a game wrecker, but instead just a very good DE in the NFL. I am glad he has got paid, but also glad it is Washington not penning the contract.
The main free agents in 2023 were never likely to get above middling, but Nick Gates (benched) and Andre Wylie (RT) give weight to the argument to sign specialists on the OL rather than continue the positional flexibility policy of Rivera.
Gates has been poor and is now replaced at Centre by Tyler Larsen, with Wylie giving up 7.5 sacks already in 2023. Bad FA signings will hopefully be a thing of the past with the Josh Harris Group in town (Wylie is not really a contract ‘out’ until 2025, Nick Gates is similar with a total Dead Cap of around $13m in 2024 for the duo!).
Final record after 17
If the Commanders can get back to an even .500 by a road trip win in Seattle, then anything is possible.
Traditionally, this part of the NFL season has been VERY GOOD for the win column for Rivera-coached Washington teams:
In 2020, the record between Weeks 10-14 was 4-1
In 2021, the record between Weeks 10-14 was 4-1
In 2022, the record between Weeks 10-14 was 3-0-1 (bye week was week 14)
Anything similar and we could be looking at an exciting run in for the burgundy & gold, I will go for 9-8 with a couple of splash wins vs Seattle and Dallas.
And to carry the football on third down, we welcome back Scott Hartley.
Thoughts on the QB play in ‘23?
Quarterback play has been overall very optimistic. I have been impressed with. Sam Howell, he is able to make all the throws & has a very good deep ball. I honestly think, we have found our Franchise Quarterback.
Sam can definitely grow into being “the guy”. I still need to see a body of work and for him to tighten up on loose throws, it seems when he makes a mistake and throws an interception it’s either at a critical time or hurts us on the scoreboard.
We can’t overlook the sacks he’s taken, with 44 sacks given up so far with at least half of them on Sam. Sam either falls into sacks or hasn’t had the ability to throw the ball away.
I am impressed with Sam’s poise in the pocket and the mobility helps him with what has been a less than average Offensive Line.
It’s a B- for me as a grade but ask yourself who of the current drafted crop or even from the Quarterback prospects of the 2022 draft are better than Sam. Sam is on course for 4500 yards and 27 TD’s that’s an enormous upgrade and if we can build around him, I believe he can be the Washington QB for many seasons ahead.
Welcome surprises?
The most welcoming surprise has been the roll of Curtis Samuel he’s been much more productive in the Eric Bieniemy variation of the West Coast Offence and he’s established himself as a solid Wide Receiver 2.
Disappointments?
The biggest disappointment has been the coaching on Defence.
We all thought this vaunted defence would be a top 5 unit with what seemed solid editions in Emmanuel Forbes & Jartavius “Quan” Martin.
The unit hasn’t stood up with the defensive line not reaching the opposing Quarterback or pressuring. This led to the trades of Chase Young and Montez Sweat (good moves in my opinion). The interior Defensive Line has struggled to get pressure of late and the defensive backs have been burnt time after time against opposing teams best wide receivers.
The blame can only be laid at the doorstep of DC Jack Del Rio who in my opinion should have been replaced after the demoralising loss vs 20-40 in week 5.
You could also look at the draft class which hasn’t hit in any way. Emmanuel Forbes and Quan Martin are starting to contribute but overall I am not impressed with this class and I’m hoping they will get better over time.
Final Record after 17?
It’s a very tough second half of the season and I can’t see too many victories.
The only one I would be looking at would be the New York Giants game at home in week 11. We will do a “Washington” and win an unlikely game with Thanksgiving in Dallas week 12 or the Dolphins in week 13.
I see a final record prediction of 6-11.
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